Smart Investing is the radio show where Brent and Chase try to make investing easier to understand. They demonstrate long-term investment strategies to help you find good value investments.
Episodes
47 minutes ago
47 minutes ago
Has watching your favorite sports become a nightmare?
It used to be easy to watch a football game as you generally had maybe two different networks it would be on and it was easy to find. Well, now the promise of streaming, reducing costs and making it easier for people to watch the shows and sports they want when they want has really missed the mark. The list can go on and on of where to watch the football game or sports you want to watch. Maybe the game will be on ESPN, Paramount+, TNT, NBC’s Peacock, CBS or maybe you’ll have to go to Amazon prime or the YouTube channel. It can be very frustrating trying to find the game you want and then you find out you don’t have the right subscription, and you have to pay extra to sign up for it. Well, maybe the justice department is coming to your rescue. Last week it was reported that the justice department is investigating whether the NFL is engaging in anti-competitive tactics that harm consumers. The investigation involves whether having many outlets for sports viewing is costing consumers far more and the NFL is taking advantage of its behemoth size and demand. There is no doubt that sports are getting out of control and just recently the NBA signed a record payday for their media rights. This has opened the door for many other sports, including the NFL, which apparently because of the change in ownership of CBS they may have to negotiate a new contract with the NFL. No doubt in my mind it will be a far higher contract than before. I’m not sure when the last straw will break the camel’s back, but it seems to be getting close as advertisers are starting to back away from the large amount that networks are asking for advertising during the games. It is possible that sports could eventually go to a cost per game because even subscription rates are getting so high that people are not keeping them long-term.
To increase your stock price, just mention AI
I’m of course being facetious, but in many cases, it appears that way. This past week, Allbirds, which was a popular shoe company just a few years ago, announced it was pivoting from shoes to artificial intelligence and the stock at one point spiked by more than 700%. A large reason for the craziness is the market cap of the company was tiny at just about $21 million as of Tuesday’s close. When companies are this small there is more room for manipulation and wild swings as fewer capital inflows are needed to drive the stock higher. What is even crazier about this stock is that just a few years ago it was a hot company valued above $4 billion and that was because of excitement around its shoes. The company introduced its debut shoe in 2016 and went public in 2021. As I said they are now making the switch to AI as they closed all their U.S. full-priced stores in February and will be focusing on AI compute infrastructure. Allbirds will be called NewBird AI and in a recent statement they said, “The Company will initially seek to acquire high-performance, low-latency AI compute hardware and provide access under long-term lease arrangements, meeting customer demand that spot markets and hyperscalers are unable to reliably service.” This is just crazy to me, and you must ask what qualifications this company has to make such a drastic shift. I know I will not be investing in this stock!
It looks like Meta will become the digital ad king
Meta has been very patient growing its ad sales by establishing substantial user habits with their products like Reels, the microblogging site Threads, and even WhatsApp. All have been very slow to introduce advertisements to their users, but that patience has paid off as worldwide ad growth for Meta increased around 22.1% in 2025 and it’s estimated it will increase another 24.1% in 2026. Because of how large Meta is, it was expected that growth would slow, but that has not happened. Their growth is far higher than Google’s growth, which is projected to be around 11.9%, about the same as last year. The ad revenue numbers are staggering with Meta expected to reach $243.46 billion, about $4 billion more than Google’s $239.54 billion. That growth has not been cheap for Meta as the company uses AI to enhance performance and capital spending is now estimated to be around $135 billion this year. I was also surprised to learn that Google’s share of the US search ad market is expected to only be 48.5%. This would be the first time it’s fallen below 50% in over a decade. There is so much competition out there from AI companies, like OpenAI, and other social media companies, like TikTok, that the ad market is continually changing. When companies compete, consumers generally win, but I’m not sure about investors as the cost of spending on technology has become a very heavy weight for many of these big tech companies.
Financial Planning: Beware of Income Taxes when Gifting
When parents give assets to their children, the income tax impact depends on what’s being gifted. Cash is usually the easiest and most tax-friendly option because there’s no built-in gain. There is no direct income tax to the giver or receiver, but if parents gift things like appreciated stock or real estate, the child receives the original cost basis as well. This means they will owe capital gains tax on all the appreciation when they sell it. In contrast, if the child inherits those same assets after the parents pass away, the basis typically steps up to current market value, wiping out that taxable gain. Because of this, it’s often smarter to gift cash or assets with little appreciation and hold onto highly appreciated assets to pass on at death.
Companies Discussed: Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI), American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL), HP Inc. (HPQ) & Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
Friday Apr 10, 2026
Friday Apr 10, 2026
Could smart glasses replace the smart phone as the number one consumer device?
If you’re like me, you probably remember the failure of Google Glass, which ended in 2015. Google may have exited the space early considering in 2025 global shipments of smart glasses hit 8.7 million units, which quadrupled 2024’s level. Meta currently holds 85% of the market but realize that Apple, Alphabet/ Google, and Samsung are expected to launch AI equipped eyewear soon. I do wonder if this will hurt or help Apple since people may be buying more smart glasses and less high-end iPhones? There are concerns about privacy and data collection. Currently Meta is facing a lawsuit in the US that is seeking class action status. Seems like Meta can’t get out of the news or the courtroom, but they do state that what the glasses collect stays on the user’s device unless they choose to share it with the company. The smart glasses can see what you see and hear what you hear. You can have a conversation with the glasses the same as if you’re talking to a person. Which means you may look like a crazy person standing there talking to yourself if people don’t realize you have smart glasses on. Companies that would benefit from an increase in manufacturing of smart glasses, excluding the big companies I already mentioned, would include companies such as EssilorLuxottica, which is the owner of Ray-Ban and Meta’s manufacturing partner, Qualcomm, which provides the central processor or the brains of the glasses, and Global Foundries. which takes care of the display technology. It appears this time; smart glasses may become as common as a smart phone in the next few years.
Is the market too expensive to buy the dip this time?
With the increasing cost of oil and the turmoil in Iran the markets did see a correction, which is a drop of 10% or more from the peak. People have become so accustomed to just buying the dips without knowing the valuations of what they’re buying, and many will probably do the same thing this time. Unfortunately, dip buying does not always work and given the current valuations, investors could be in for a bad surprise. Even with the recent pull back, the forward price/earnings ratio for the S&P 500 sits at 20 and is still 20% higher than the 20-year average. So even with the dip you’re not buying companies on sale at these levels. Earnings can be adjusted and moved around with accounting rules, which means you’re probably paying more than you believe if you don’t understand accounting. Another indicator to look at is the forward price to free cash flow. This indicator takes out all the accounting craziness of how much some tech companies are spending on capital expenditures for artificial intelligence. Often, I find these two measures converge once the accounting catches up to the heavy capex spending and understanding both earnings and free cash flow is an important balance. The index currently has a forward price to free cash flow of 27.4 and that is nearly 40% above the 20-year average. Smart investors really should stop and think. They should realize they’re paying a lot more for the S&P 500 than they thought. Free cash flow is not an accounting measure, and companies are not required to compute it for you. It’s not that hard to calculate though as you start with cash from operations and then deduct all the capital expenditures. This is where the devil is in the details because this is where you will see how overvalued many tech companies are because of the billions of dollars they’re spending. The big risk here is the return on investment will likely not come very quickly and maybe not at all. This doesn’t mean you shouldn’t invest in stocks as you can still find good quality equities that are generating very good cash flow and that you’re not overpaying for the earnings or the free cash flow. Personally, those are the types of businesses I’m looking for when investing for myself and my clients.
Consumer prices spike in March due to Iran war
While it was in line with expectations, the headline CPI rose 3.3% compared to last year. This was the highest annual rate since April 2024, and it was substantially higher than February’s reading of 2.4%. The obvious reason for the increase was the change in oil prices. Energy showed an increase of 12.5%, largely due to a spike of 18.9% in gasoline prices. Month over month gasoline prices climbed 21.2%, which was the largest monthly increase since 1967 when the series was first published. Outside of the energy spike, prices did not look problematic considering core CPI, which excludes food and energy, saw an increase of 2.6% on an annual basis. This was relatively in line with recent months and was 0.1% below the forecast. While the Fed may be able to look through these inflation numbers, if energy remains elevated the concern is it will start to impact core CPI as well. Companies will need to start raising prices to offset their higher expenses due to energy costs. For example, airline fares, which rose 14.9% over the past 12 months would see further pressure. Deutsche Bank estimates that if jet fuel prices stay near current levels for a full year, airlines would have to increase ticket prices by about 17% to offset those cost pressures. Transportation would also be problematic with companies like Amazon, UPS, and FedEx needing to pay more to move goods around the economy. We have already seen the introduction of fuel and logistics surcharges and those will likely climb further if problems persist. On a positive note, the shelter index rose just 3.0% on an annual basis, which was tied for its lowest level since August 2021. As I have mentioned before, I anticipate shelter inflation will continue to decline as the year progresses. Overall, the main takeaway is if this Iran war can be contained and energy prices start to decline, which I think they will, inflation should not be a problem in 2026.
Financial Planning: Reporting a Backdoor Roth IRA
Normally when income is above $236k for joint filers or $150k for single filers, the ability to make Roth IRA contributions is phased out. A backdoor Roth IRA is a strategy that allows high-income taxpayers to fund Roth IRAs, but it needs to be done correctly. It is a two-step process that involves making a traditional IRA contribution and then converting that contribution into a Roth IRA. This can only be done if the account holder does not have any other pre-tax IRAs. When the initial contribution is made to the traditional IRA, it needs to be reported as a non-deductible contribution. When the funds are converted, a 1099-r is generated, and as long as the initial contribution was reported correctly, the conversion is not taxable. The end result is a Roth IRA that can grow tax-free. While this can be a benefit, it is crucial that everything is reported correctly to prevent filing errors, overcontributions, and amended tax returns.
Companies Discussed: ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW), NIKE, Inc. (NKE), RH (RH) & Invesco Ltd. (IVZ)
Friday Apr 03, 2026
Friday Apr 03, 2026
How much could inflation increase because of surging oil prices?
It is hard to know exactly how much the increase will be, but we do know it will be increasing because since the Iran war started February 28th, a barrel of oil has increased from around $70 a barrel to around $100 a barrel depending on the day. Economists estimate that the March CPI inflation number could be around 3.4% and may hit 4% in April. If the conflict continues through summer and into the fall, we could see inflation hit 5%. While this is a possibility, fortunately, it does not appear that will happen. One would have to go back 20 years to see this type of rapid increase in gas prices. The Fed has been trying for five years to get inflation down to 2% with no success, and it does not appear that it will happen this year, which means interest rate rates will probably remain around the current level for the remainder of this year. This will be tough on the economy because mortgage rates won’t be coming down as we expected, and people may not be doing that remodel on their home because home equity lines will still be high. Some may just say I want to get this done and just go ahead and accept the higher interest rate, but I believe most will choose to continue deferring the project. The good news is, I don’t believe this will last much past May or June because the President knows this would be very tough on the economy and the midterm elections are approaching quickly. So, currently we’re still saying this is a short-term problem and any pullback in good quality businesses that don’t have high valuations is a good buying opportunity.
You may finally be able to invest in SpaceX!
Bloomberg and CNBC’s David Faber reported that SpaceX has confidentially filed for an IPO with the Securities and Exchange Commission, also known as the SEC. It’s estimated the company could see a listing around June and that it is seeking a valuation of $1.75 trillion, which would lead to a record public offering. Don’t forget that SpaceX merged with Musk’s X AI, which also owns X and used to be Twitter, back in February. At that time the combined entity was valued at $1.25 trillion. Following a SpaceX IPO, Musk will become the first person to sit atop two separate trillion-dollar public companies. This IPO would also likely help increase Musk’s net worth, which is estimated to be close to $840 billion. Most of Musk’s net worth comes from his estimated 43%stake in SpaceX and 13% ownership of Tesla. I would have to assume this IPO would be well received given all the excitement around space, AI, and Elon Musk. This company is not just built around hype given its contracts with NASA, the Air Force, and Space Force. It also conducted 165 orbital flights over the course of 2025 and operates the Starlink satellite internet service, which runs on a constellation of around 10,000 satellites in lower-earth orbit. With that said, my guess is the stock would push higher in the public markets to lofty levels that would make it dangerous as a long-term investment. There’s also speculation that we could see IPOs for Anthropic and OpenAI this year. I do believe these mega IPOs could cause problems for stocks like Tesla, Nvidia, and Microsoft as there is only so much available capital and investors may sell those positions to a get a piece of these new exciting stocks. This should be an exciting year for the IPO market.
Maybe the labor market isn’t as bad as people think
Coming off a weak February report where payrolls declined by 133k, March showed a nice increase of 178k jobs. Part of the volatility was due to a strike at Kaiser that led to job losses in February, but then a surge of 76k jobs in the health care space in March. Health care continues to be the driving force for the labor market, but construction was strong in the month as the sector added 26k jobs and transportation and warehousing saw a nice increase of 21k jobs. The government sector continues to weigh negatively on the headline number as federal government employment declined by 18k jobs in March. Since reaching a peak in October 2024, federal government employment is down 11.8% or 355k jobs. Financial activities also saw a decline of 15k jobs in the month and the other major sectors like manufacturing, information, and leisure and hospitality saw little change in the month. While I wouldn’t say the labor market is booming, considering the unemployment rate is sitting at 4.3%, which was down from 4.4% last month, I’d say maintaining the labor market at these levels would be extremely healthy for our economy. I remain optimistic that both the labor market and economy will remain in a good spot for the rest of 2026.
Financial Planning: Setting Up 2026 Tax Payments
With Tax Day approaching, it’s important to think not just about your 2025 tax return, but also about planning for 2026. In the U.S., taxes must be paid throughout the year either through withholding or quarterly estimated payments, and while your 2025 balance is due April 15, the first estimated tax payment for 2026 is also due on that same day. This matters especially for income like interest, dividends, capital gains, business income, and rental income, which typically don’t have automatic withholding and therefore require estimated payments. If you don’t pay enough during the year, the IRS will charge both interest and underpayment penalties on the shortfall. To avoid interest and penalties, you generally need to pay at least 90% of your current-year tax, 100% of last year’s tax, or 110% of last year’s tax if your AGI is over $150,000. Since projecting the current year tax can be unreliable when income is variable, a simple way to stay on track is to use last year’s tax as a baseline since it’s known and easy, and if you fall behind, you can catch up by increasing withholdings from wages, pensions, or retirement withdrawals since withholdings are treated as if they were made evenly throughout the year, regardless of timing.
Companies Discussed: Snowflake Inc. (SNOW), Snap Inc. (SNAP), Alcoa Corporation (AA) & Boston Scientific Corporation (BSX)
Friday Mar 27, 2026
Friday Mar 27, 2026
Is the concern of stagflation putting downward pressure on bank stocks?
The term stagflation was first used in 1965 by a British politician. A quick definition for an economy with stagflation is when there is slow economic growth, high unemployment, and high inflation. A scenario like that would put a strain on banks because as people lose their jobs one of the first things they stop paying on are consumer loans like credit cards and personal loans. Banks can also get squeezed because they may have locked in long-term loans at lower rates and because of high inflation, the Federal Reserve could increase short-term interest rates, which would compress margins. The banks also need meet certain liquidity requirements, which could hurt margins even more. On the bright side, this could be a buying opportunity to invest in banks since they are down roughly 9 to 10% since the beginning of the year. The reason I think this could be a good opportunity is manyfold. First off, the high oil prices that are currently causing inflation concerns appear to be a short-term problem and I believe they should start reversing by May or June. Second, employers have slowed down on hiring new people but are reluctant to let employees go because it’s very costly to hire new employees. Third, the economy appears to still be doing well and consumers have already started receiving part of the $50-$60 billion in tax refunds from the Big Beautiful Bill, which should help with consumer spending. This is also the year where agreements from other countries to invest trillions of dollars into our economy should start taking place. In regard to the banks themselves, they’re sitting in a pretty good situation with diversified businesses as your mega banks like JPMorgan and Bank of America have trading houses and global markets that are growing in the low double digits. Some banks expect mid-teens growth in the trading business. Some of the bankers have also said that demand for traditional commercial loans has been improving so far this year. In its most recent data, the Federal Reserve showed commercial industrial loans were up 5% year over a year, which is the largest increase since 2023. As always with investing, you should be looking out at least 2 to 3 years. One other perk is many banks pay a decent dividend around 2% to 2.5%
Meta and YouTube get screwed in court
I was very disappointed to see that a 20-year-old woman, who won in a California court, is set to receive a total of $6 million from Meta and YouTube. Her claim was she was addicted to social media, and it dominated her life for years, which caused mental health issues like anxiety and depression. I’m really getting tired of the legal system in California and the theatrics played by attorneys such as her attorney having a jar of 415 M&M’s saying each M&M represented $1 billion of the near $400 billion in total stockholder equity when looking at Alphabets value. He began to remove one M&M at a time and demonstrated how taking out a few M&Ms did not change the weight of the jar. My feeling is this attorney should go to Hollywood and try to get an acting job. It is disappointing to see how no one wants to take accountability for their actions any longer. They want to blame somebody else and not take responsibility for the fact that she uploaded more than 200 YouTube videos before the age of 10 and had 15 Instagram accounts before she was 15. I do have to ask where were the parents? This could just be the beginning as there are 3000 other similar lawsuits against social media companies that are pending in California courts. I do believe there should be some changes made to the regulatory framework around social media, but this goes too far and is just in my opinion greed from attorneys and people trying to get a free ride. I was glad to see that both companies are appealing the decision, and this will likely continue to move up the court system and may land in the Supreme Court. Meta also lost a case in New Mexico this past week as jurors found that Meta willfully violated the state’s unfair practices. The state’s Attorney General claimed the company failed to properly safeguard its apps from online predators targeting children. It is disappointing to see the number of lawsuits that are going on in our country. Our country was not built on attorneys and lawsuits; it was built on people working hard and taking responsibility for their own actions. I do fear for my grandkids if we continue on this path and wonder what our country will look like in 30 or 40 years. When it comes to investing, I would be very careful in this space, as these cases could set a dangerous precedent for trials to come. There is also a federal trial set to begin this summer in the Northern District of California involving claims by school districts and parents nationwide that apps from Meta, YouTube, TikTok and Snap helped foster detrimental mental health-related harms to young users.
Will higher gas prices hurt strong US car sales?
Current US car sales are around 16 million on an annual basis, which is down from 2019 when they were 17 million, but overall, they are still very healthy. The car business has changed from low margin vehicles to more luxury vehicles with higher profit margins and the average price on a new car is now over $50,000. The car buyers themselves have changed with the average new vehicle buyer around 50 years old. This is seven years older than in the year 2000. It’s no surprise, but because of the higher prices for cars, people earning over $150,000 a year account for 42% of the sales. Six years ago, it was just 29%. It was also reported that buyers who have incomes of $75,000 or less are no longer buying new cars because of the affordability. The higher gas prices do not seem to be affecting car sales at this point and according to the manufacturers, they are still saying the buyers remain resilient. However, if gas and oil prices remain at current levels that would then likely put a strain on car sales. Fortunately, at this time, based on many factors, I think by May or June we will start to see the easing of prices at the pump. Also helping US manufacturers is the deductible interest on cars made in the US. There are restrictions on this, but that does also help ease the pain with a little tax deduction. Also, since the President ended the tax credits for electric vehicles, US car manufacturers were able to scrap the losing endeavor of trying to build profitable EVs. With the stock prices for car manufacturers down around 9 to 10%, I believe the investment clouds should be clearing in the next couple of months and investors may have an opportunity to invest in a good US car manufacturer. It’s important to remember that if you step in and buy here, you own a small piece of a large company and don’t worry about the day to day volatility, you should be focusing on where that business will be at least 2-3 years down the road.
Should crypto companies be allowed into the United States banking system?
Unfortunately, Jonathan Gould, who is Comptroller of the Currency and is one of the country’s most powerful bank regulators, believes so. He thinks it’s a good idea to let firms like Ripple, Crypto.com and others in this area to become a trust bank. A trust bank is a little bit different than a normal bank because they don’t take deposits or make loans and instead offer other services like safekeeping of various assets. An example of trust banks would be insurance companies and payroll processors. My concern is what the average consumer may think as they could believe that because it’s a trust bank it is automatically insured by the federal government. This is a gray area as some trust banks can have insurance from the federal government, but they do not insure investments like stocks bonds, and cryptocurrencies. The Bank Policy Institute and other banks are against this because it is unclear what these crypto companies would do with bank charters. There is talk that some applicants may want access to the Federal Reserve payment rails, which would allow them to move money between digital currencies and the banking system. My concern is this could jeopardize the strength of our banking system and cause our federal government to be on the hook for some big financial liability in the years to come as some cryptocurrency drops dramatically or fails.
Companies Discussed: DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS), Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY), Signet Jewelers Limited (SIG) & CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)
Friday Mar 20, 2026
Friday Mar 20, 2026
Bank stocks feel the pain from private credit
You may have noticed that the bank stock index is down about 10%, which is more than the S&P 500’s decline of 3% at the beginning of the year. It is estimated that banks made roughly 10% of their total loans to non-depository financial institutions known as NDFIs, which includes private credit companies. It’s also estimated that these types of loans in the past three years have grown from $1.1 trillion to $1.9 trillion. The banking stocks may struggle for a few more months, but the good news is a recent study from the Office of Financial Research found that private funds and BDCs, which are Business Development Corporations, use lines of credit and currently they’ve only used about 50 to 65% of the buying capacity. The tough decision for the banks is do they cut off the line of credit now or do they take on more risk and let those lines of credit increase to 70 or 80%? I feel I hope they stop it now because the risk I think is too great going forward on these private loans. We do hold two banks in our portfolio, which means we may see little to no gain in those stocks in 2026 due to the concerns around private lending. However, we do invest in companies for the long term and understand that difficulties can arise and cause a down year for any company. Long-term I don’t believe this will have a major impact on the financial situation for most of the bigger banks.
The big business of youth sports
I remember growing up and wishing for a baseball or maybe a football for Christmas so I could go down the street and play with my friends. Fast forward to today and youth sports are a multibillion-dollar business for companies. The average American family spends $1,000 on sports per child. Whenever there’s an opportunity someone or some business will step in and fill the void, Dick’s Sporting Goods has helped fill this void. Dicks opened back in the 1940s by a gentleman name Richard Stack, who had the nickname, Dick. His grandmother had $300 cash in her cookie jar and that is what Dick used to start a fishing supply shop in Binghamton, New York. There are now more than 700 stores across the country and their newest concept known as Dick’s House of Sport is expected to have around 100 stores by the end of next year. These are mega stores that are 150,000 square feet, which is three times the size of a normal store. In these mega stores you will find batting cages, climbing walls, golf simulators, and even fields to run around to test out your new cleats. Dicks have been doing well considering it saw revenue skyrocket to $14.1 billion last year. This was twice what it was 10 years ago, not a bad feat for any company.
It’s not just oil; aluminum prices have been surging!
With the recent war in Iran, the rising price of oil and gasoline has been quite noticeable and has been discussed heavily by various news outlets. One lesser-known impact from the difficulties within the Strait of Hormuz is the price for aluminum has surged. People may not notice it since they don’t necessarily buy aluminum directly, but if the problem persists you could see price increases for your favorite six pack of soda or beer. Outside of packaging, aluminum is also used across electronics, construction, transportation, and solar panels. In 2025, the Middle East accounted for roughly 21% of unwrought aluminum imports, which is the raw, unprocessed metal, and 13% of wrought aluminum imports, which is aluminum that has been mechanically shaped into sheets, rods, or other finished forms. Due to supply concerns, the price of aluminum has now increased to 4-year highs and there are concerns it could push even closer to $4,000 per ton from the current price around $3,400 per ton. Aluminum is the most abundant metal on earth, but production has slowed with locations like Bahrain’s Alba cutting production by 19%, this location is home to the world’s largest smelter. Unlike oil, China could have a huge impact when it comes to producing aluminum. China is already the biggest producer of aluminum, but to try and reduce emissions and prevent overcapacity they keep production constrained. They currently have several idle smelters that could be restarted if they feel aluminum prices are too high. Like we have said with the price of oil, I don’t see this as a long-term problem, but the longer supply is constrained for these input costs, the more problematic it is for inflation.
Surprise, US oil inventories actually increased
I know what you’re thinking with the price of gasoline and oil increasing, oil inventories must be declining. Fortunately, that is not the case. If the inventories were decreasing the price of oil and gasoline at the pump would probably be even higher. For the week ending March 13th, crude oil inventories rose by 6.2 million barrels to 449.3 million barrels. This does not include the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Everyone including the analysts thought for sure there would be a decline and the estimate was for a decline of around 40,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories did fall by 5.4 million barrels to 244.1 million barrels as of March 13th, but that inventory level is still 3% above the five-year average for gasoline inventories. If the inventories remain high, we could see the price of oil and gasoline begin to decline in another couple weeks or so. It will not go back to where it was a month or so ago, but we should hopefully start seeing a decline back to more normal levels soon.
Financial Planning: How to Create a Tax-Free Account for a Child
A powerful way to build tax-free wealth for a child is by strategically using the kiddie tax rules with investments that generate qualified dividends and long-term capital gains. Under the kiddie tax, the first $1,350 of investment income is tax-free, and the next $1,350 is taxed at the child’s rate, which for capital gains and qualified dividends is typically also 0%. This means a child can receive up to $2,700 of investment income each year with no federal tax. Income above this level is taxed at the parent’s rate, which may be 15% or 20%. While $2,700 may not seem like much, it can support a surprisingly large portfolio because dividend yields are typically low and capital gains are only recognized when assets are sold. For example, a portfolio with a 2% dividend yield would not generate $2,700 of dividends until it reaches about $135,000. While the account is below that level, capital gain harvesting can be used each year to bring total income up to $2,700, allowing gains to be realized tax-free while increasing the cost basis. Because this involves realizing gains (not losses), there are no wash sale restrictions, and investments can be immediately repurchased. By consistently harvesting gains over time, the child can build a portfolio with minimal tax drag and potentially access those funds later with little to no capital gains tax, especially if they continue the strategy after they are no longer subject to the kiddie tax.
Companies Discussed: Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), SL Green Realty Corp. (SLG), Public Storage (PSA) & The Campbell's Company (CPB)
Friday Mar 13, 2026
Friday Mar 13, 2026
Private credit woes continue!
Investors continue to worry about the private credit market and this week has been filled with troubling news from the sector. According to the Financial Times, Glendon Capital Management said private credit funds run by Blue Owl (OWL) and several of its peers may have understated loss rates in their portfolios, suggesting actual losses could be higher than reported. This has led to concerns around the “true valuation” of these assets. This wouldn’t be surprising given the little clarity that we have for these loans. We also saw JPMorgan Chase take a conservative approach and mark down the value of some loans tied to private credit vehicles. All the negativity has now caused investors to question the long-term viability of this investment, and many are now wanting to redeem their shares. The problem is these companies don’t have to give you all your money back when you ask for it. Blackrock, Morgan Stanley, and Cliffwater all had to curb withdrawals as requests exceeded the pre-existing limit, which normally looks to be around 5%. Looking at Morgan Stanley’s North Haven Private Income fund in particular, redemption requests totaled 10.9% of shares outstanding in Q1 and the fund said it would honor 5% of those requests, which is roughly just 45.8% of each investor’s tender request. This now means those investors have to continue holding the fund until next quarter and can try again at that time to sell additional shares. I also recently learned of a term in the private credit space called Paid in Kind interest, also referred to as PIK. It is essentially an IOU that borrowers give to lenders instead of cash. When this occurs, the borrower’s debt just increases by the interest due rather than the borrower needing to make an interest payment. The crazy thing is that these PIK receipts are still counted as interest income and it counts towards the management fee. An analyst by the name of Ron Kahn, who runs a unit at the Chicago investment bank Lincoln International that does valuations for about a third of all U.S. private credit loans, wondered why private credit companies were showing such few defaults. What he found was lenders were proactively amending loan agreements by allowing PIK interest rather than cash payment so they could avoid default. Lincoln International saw private credit loans with PIK interest rise to 11% at the end of 2025, which was up from 5% in early 2022. There are many concerns in this space right now and I’m sure glad I don’t have any assets in this space!
Prediction markets are hitting college campuses to find gamblers
Prediction markets have something FanDuel and DraftKings don’t, access to the 18 to 21-year-olds in college. Gambling is generally limited to adults 21 years or older, however, prediction markets that are run by companies like Polymarket and Kalshi are trades that are regulated as financial derivative contracts by the Commodity Future Trading Commission. This allows anyone 18 years or older to gamble using these prediction markets. Both Kalshi and Polymarket are hitting college campuses across the country and throwing cash around to lure in 18 to 21-year-old students to place bets via the prediction market. They are doing this by using fraternities and even campus clubs to promote their platforms and in some cases, they pay them $10 per each new account they sign up. There was one fraternity who received $30,510 in two weeks which the fraternity used for parties and new furniture. They are also using student influencers as brand representatives to sell other students on the prediction market. These two companies have no shame as they have even used college athletes to influence others to bet on sports with prediction markets.
Don’t pay attention to the price of oil on a daily basis
I say that because there’s so much speculation out there and likely the information you receive on the price of oil is useless when you look forward to a few months and maybe even just a few weeks from now. Last week the price of oil surged around 35%, but on Monday after comments from the President that this will not last long in the Middle East, crude oil fell back down to under $85 a barrel. Why is this volatility in the price of oil happening? Roughly 20% of global oil consumption is exported through the Strait of Hormuz and about 20% liquefied natural gas exports worldwide also pass through the narrow waterway. The United States over the years along with other allies have spent billions of dollars making sure the waterway remains open. At the smallest part it is only 21 miles across and to the northeast there sits, Iran. Officially the waterway is not closed or blocked physically, but there are concerns of going through the strait for fear of being hit by a missile shot from Iran. The other concern is how long this will go on because storage facilities for oil have pretty much reached full capacity and when that happens the producers need to turn off the well in a process known as “shutting in” occurs. When this happens, there can be problems and delays turning the wells back on and some may not regain the original flow. As you can tell, it is not a simple process and it’s not just oil that’s goes through the strait but also liquified natural gas and even large amounts of fertilizer flow through the area as well. I would not recommend making any investment decisions during this time around anything that has to do with oil or even energy for that matter.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) agrees to historic oil release
The IEA, which is an organization of 32 member countries primarily with advanced economies in Europe, North America and northeast Asia, agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves. Currently, IEA members hold more than 1.2 billion barrels of public emergency oil stocks, with a further 600 million barrels of industry stocks held under government obligation. While the strategic release is helpful, it is only a temporary fix considering nearly 20 million barrels passes through the Strait of Hormuz per day in normal times. China also could help with oil prices if it reduced its purchasing or released some of its stockpile. Ahead of the war China was buying oil at an elevated rate and in the first two months of the year, crude imports soared 15.8% compared to a year earlier. It's estimated as of January China had a stockpile of 1.2 billion barrels as well. China has also been continuing to receive oil from Iran and since the war began it's estimated they've received close to 12 million barrels from the country.
Surprise.... Gen Z is going to the mall for in-person shopping!
You may be hearing that younger people don’t go to the mall any longer, but that is not true, it’s just a little bit different than when people went 20 years ago. Gen Z, the generation consisting of 14 to 29-year-olds, shops at the mall but first they check online sources like Instagram and TikTok to see what's in style. According to Nielsen IQ, the global annual retail spending by this generation is expected to be over $12 trillion by 2030. Shoppers between 18 and 24 years old made 62% of their general merchandise purchases in stores last year, but shoppers 25 and older made just 52% of their purchases in person. Some of the reasons given for the in-person preference was that Gen Z does not like to pay the shipping fees along with common sense things like they want to touch the item and see it in person especially if it’s clothing, they want to see how it looks on them. Malls understand this, and many of them have actually set up areas so that the young shoppers can take their selfies in fitting rooms and other areas that are social media friendly. If you’re a salesperson in a retail store and if you’re talking to this generation, you’d better be up to date when it comes to what’s going on in social media. Some salespeople even have a tablet to show shoppers how influencers are styling different items. It is a misconception that this generation is averse to talking to people, but how you talk to them is different. They’d rather get their advice from an influencer or a friend rather than a salesperson.
Companies Discussed: The Gap, Inc. (GAP), StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB), Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) & Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER)
Friday Mar 06, 2026
Friday Mar 06, 2026
Friday Feb 27, 2026
Friday Feb 27, 2026
These massive AI deals look concerning
The numbers are exciting when companies like Meta or OpenAI announce they'll be purchasing billions of dollars in chips or computing power from companies like Nvidia or AMD, but there always seems to be a catch. Most recently, Meta announced that it entered a multiyear deal with AMD to deploy up to 6 gigawatts of the company’s graphics processing units for artificial intelligence data centers and includes use of AI-optimized central processing units, or CPUs. This deal comes a week after Meta committed to using millions of Nvidia's processors to power its AI expansion. While I have my concerns with all the money Meta is spending, my bigger concern with this new AMD deal is the use of stock warrants. Full details for the deal weren't announced, but we did see the deal includes a performance-based warrant for Meta to acquire 160 million AMD shares, about 10% of the company. The first tranche vests when the first 1GW of Instinct GPUs are shipped. Other tranches vest as Meta, makes purchases to 6GW. Vesting is also tied to stock price thresholds for AMD and technical and commercial milestones for Meta. AMD also struck a similar deal with OpenAI where they received warrants to acquire 160 million shares of AMD and it was tied to deployment and stock price benchmarks. The reason this is concerning is because of the potential dilution and again the circular nature of these deals. Essentially these companies are saying they will spend $30 B buying our products and we will give you $30 B in stock warrants back. Stock warrants give holders the right but not the obligation to buy or sell shares at specific strike price before an expiration date. If they are exercised, it creates new stock, which would dilute current shareholders. Based on what I have seen, the exercise price for these warrants is $0.01. Ultimately, I just don't believe this will end well for all players in this space, and I think there is a lot of money that will be lost by investors.
2025 trade deficit looks deceiving
Some people are saying that the tariffs didn't work because the trade deficit in 2025 only fell to about $901.5 B from just over $903 B in 2024. However, if you break down the numbers quarter by a quarter, it tells a different story. The first three months of the year, there was a $400 billion trade deficit, but each quarter after that it began to decline. In the second quarter, it fell drastically to $180 billion. There wasn't much of a change in the third quarter with a slight drop to $175 billion and then in the fourth quarter there was a drop to $145 billion. We try to explain to people that the US economy at $31.5 trillion is like a big ship in the ocean; it cannot turn quickly. If people would be patient, I think they would see by the end of 2026 there would be further progress and I believe it's possible the trade deficit could see a decline to somewhere around $600-$700 billion based on the fourth quarter of 2025. I know there’s a snafu with the Supreme Court ruling that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which was used in the first quarter last year to implement many of the tariffs, was ruled illegal. But there are other ways to impose tariffs such as section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 or section 301 of the Trade Act that the president used in his first term. Also available is section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. I don't believe the Supreme Court ruling will lead to an end of tariffs as the Administration will look at these other avenues. One major positive from these tariffs has been the announcements of various trade deals that have resulted in trillions of dollars promised by other countries to build manufacturing and other things in our economy.
Why is automobile insurance so high?
Your first thought may be the insurance companies are gouging their customers just to make big profits. First off, insurance companies are generally public companies that have shareholders who would not be investing in their company if it was losing money and not paying dividends. The high cost of premiums is not the insurance companies' fault as in recent years things have really changed. Over the past five years, physical damage costs have increased by 47%. This is because of the higher price of cars and all the extra bells and whistles that add up when there’s damage to a vehicle. Bodily injury claims are up 52% over the last five years because of the vast amount of new personal injury lawyers who have come on the scene and are pushing for higher settlements, even on small fender benders. Around 95% of these cases are settled and do not go to court. Many of your less reputable attorneys know this and hold the insurance companies’ hostage. Either settle up with us now or go to court and spend a lot more money and time. Unfortunately, if you’re a responsible driver that makes your premium payments, you are helping absorb the cost of uninsured and underinsured motorists which is up 72%. I’m not a big person for government regulation, but I do believe governments need to step in and verify that all people on the road have auto insurance and a reasonable amount. There’s a trend starting in Florida, which is tort reform that has reduced litigation, and the top five insurance companies in the state have requested rate reductions of 5.9%. There is something in the auto insurance industry called fender bender litigation and this tort reform would help states like New York, California and other states to prevent insurance companies from having to pay ridiculous settlements for little dings and dents and fake injuries. Wouldn’t it be nice if the state of California passed laws to help consumers to pay less for auto insurance?
Financial Planning: What Is the Goal of Tax Planning?
Most people would assume the goal of tax planning is simply to reduce taxes, or even to reduce lifetime taxes, but that should not be the focus. The true purpose of tax planning is to increase the level of after-tax income by intentionally managing assets and income sources. If the objective were merely to pay less in taxes, the solution would be simple: stop earning money. But earning less would also leave you with fewer resources and less freedom. What people ultimately want is more net income, more access to money, because that provides flexibility, security, and the ability to live life on their terms. Effective tax planning achieves this by building assets and income streams and structuring them in a way that allows you to access them efficiently. This means investing in the right types of assets, placing them in the right types of accounts, adjusting the strategy over time as income and tax laws change, and withdrawing funds at the right time and in the right manner. When you understand that the true purpose of tax planning is to maximize after-tax access to wealth, not merely minimize taxes, you make better decisions that improve your financial life.
Companies Discussed: Vulcan Materials Company (VMC), Leidos Holdings, Inc. (LDOS), Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) & Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR)
Friday Feb 20, 2026
Friday Feb 20, 2026
Is investing in Google’s century bond a good idea?
If you don’t want to read any further, and just want the basic answer, for investors it’s a terrible idea. On the other hand, for companies, universities or even governments, issuing a century bond is a great way to lock in low rates for a hundred years. As I said for investors, it’s a terrible idea, here is an example. In 2020, the Austrian government issued a century bond that locked in a yield of 0.85%, which was a great deal for them. But for investors who purchased that bond, it is now trading for 30 cents on the euro. Another example of how things can change is back in 1997, J.C. Penney issued a 100-year bond. Back then no one would have imagined bankruptcy would occur just a little over 20 years later for the company. You may be wondering who would benefit from buying these bonds? Generally, it would be your insurers or pension funds. They both have long-dated liabilities, so long-term bonds give them comfort, knowing what the future cash flows will be. There will also likely be some hedge funds and high-risk investors that will want to trade the bonds as they will have a high amount of fluctuation based on interest rates. In fixed income investing, there is something called duration, which essentially looks at the number of years it takes to recoup a bond's true cost. The longer the duration, the more price volatility for the bond when it comes to interest rate moves. Ultimately, for the average investor I would say to stay away because predicting which way interest rates are heading can be very difficult game and it could destroy your investment returns.
Big expenses are coming for companies that invest in AI
We have talked about this in the past couple years and now after the companies spent roughly $500 billion in 2025 it's estimated they will spend another $3 trillion by the end of the decade. As the companies spend more money on data centers, chips and other items for AI, their depreciation expense will rise each year, which will reduce their income. The big tech companies are kind of sneaky currently with depreciation. Many companies like railroads and other companies report depreciation as a standalone operating expense on their income statement. The reason depreciation is important for investors to understand is that eventually equipment becomes obsolete or worn out and must be replaced. But the big tech companies currently don’t have to break out depreciation until 2028 after new rule changes take effect. Currently, they include depreciation in the cost of goods sold or sometimes in research and development or general and administrative expenses. This makes it very difficult for investors and analysts to understand the true numbers. The big tech companies defense is they currently include it in the footnotes. However, companies like Microsoft have as many as 15-20 footnotes, which are generally not seen by investors or analysts. Perhaps the big tech companies will continue to hold onto their lofty valuations for now, but at some point, the real earnings will come through, and the stocks could take a major beating.
Don’t blame the restaurant or the grocery store for the high price of meat
I’m sure you’ve noticed that if you want to go out and have a good steak, you’re probably going to spend somewhere in the neighborhood of $45-$50, depending on the restaurant and how big the steak is. There’s a big shortage of cattle in the United States and the numbers are staggering. In January, there were only 86.2 million cattle and calves, which is down from a peak of more than 130 million in the mid 1970s. The number of people in the United States far surpasses the number of cattle and supply/demand being what it is, it is pushing the price of cattle to higher levels. The 86.2 million heads of cattle may sound like a lot, but when you look at the numbers it is the smallest herd since 1951 and that’s when the population in the United States was 157 million. The population now stands around 344 million people, which is an increase of 119%. All things being equal, there should be around 188 million heads of cattle available. There are three main reasons why the price of meat is high and the number of cattle is low. We used to receive about 5% of our beef supply from Mexico, but a parasitic fly larvae called screwworm has destroyed that supply. Another problem is a lack of rain in Texas, which is the largest producer of our beef supply with 12.5 million cows. If ranchers don’t get enough rain, they produce smaller herds because the cost of feed increases. You may be thinking there’s a lot of cows in California as you drive up 15 and you are right because California is the fourth largest producing state for cows at 5 million, but 1.7 million of those cows are dairy cows. The third reason is simply being a rancher is hard work, and it is generally passed down from generation to generation. Most kids when they’re growing up do not dream about working on a ranch in the hot sun in the dirt all day long. Also, with the price of land some ranchers realize they’re better off selling the ranch for a big profit than continuing to work the land. Fortunately, many ranchers love what they do and despite the hard work continue to do it generation after generation. If you know any young kids that like riding horses, maybe they should consider going to work on a ranch and save all that college money?
Financial Planning: Do Commission-Free Annuities Make Annuities More Attractive?
One of the primary downsides of annuities has always been the layers of fees that drag on returns, along with upfront commissions that create conflicts of interest in how they’re recommended. Commission-free annuities attempt to address these concerns by eliminating the embedded commission and often lowering internal product expenses, which in theory should improve transparency and net performance. However, these products are typically sold by fee-based advisors who charge ongoing advisory fees, meaning that while the conflict of interest may be reduced, the cost savings inside the annuity can be offset by the advisor’s separate fee. Even with improved pricing structures, the fundamental challenge remains, annuities generally offer lower expected long-term internal rates of return compared to investing directly in diversified market portfolios. While annuities provide guarantees such as downside protection and lifetime income, those guarantees come at a cost that often outweighs their benefit. In many cases, investors can generate greater long-term growth and higher income from a well-diversified portfolio. The returns may not be technically guaranteed, but it can still be done in a conservative and sustainable way.
Companies Discussed: Mattel, Inc. (MAT), DraftKings Inc. (DKNG), Ferrari N.V. (RACE) & Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR)
Friday Feb 13, 2026
Friday Feb 13, 2026
Should you invest by following when insiders buy?
It sounds like it’s an easy thing. Just do what the insiders do because they obviously know the company well and if the stock were to drop in value and the insiders commit to purchasing shares, it must be a smart investment. Unfortunately, it’s not that easy and there are many other factors involved. Data also shows that longer term it may not even matter. Over my 45 years of doing this, I have even seen sometimes where they borrow money from the company to actually do the purchase of the shares. With that said when they are committing their own money, does the stock do well afterwards? The Wall Street Journal did an analysis of 1,400 publicly disclosed insider purchases using S&P 500 companies. Going back to 2020, they discovered insiders at 327 companies had a total of $3.7 billion in stock trades over $100,000. Most of the purchases were completed after a decline from the previous 30 days and produced a median gain of about 2% a month later but then began to decline after that. The numbers also showed that only 15% of the purchases fully recovered from where they had fallen in the previous 30 days before the share purchase. It should also be noted that they cannot act on insider information, so if there’s something major that can move the stock either up or down, they would probably go to jail if they were to act upon it. In other words, since they can’t act upon insider information, they don’t have much of an advantage over someone doing a good amount of research about the company.
It's not a stock market, it's a market of stocks
I have often made this claim when things get crazy in the stock market. What I mean by this is you don't just have to buy the stock market and instead can look for good companies within the market. The reason this is so important to understand is because individual stocks can still do well even when the broader market struggles, especially when the market gets heavily concentrated like it is today. I often reference the tech boom and bust as an example investors should study and in times like this, I believe it is even more applicable. From the tech-stock peak on March 27th, 2000, through the end of that year, the S&P 500 fell 13.4%. It is important to remember that the S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index, which means the larger the company the more it makes up of the index. If we instead look at the equal-weighted S&P 500, where every company has essentially the same weighting, it actually gained 10.7% from March 27th through the end of 2000. Looking at specific sectors during that period, utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples were actually up about 40% to 45%, while tech fell 51.8%. It has been nice for many investors to enjoy the easy ride in the S&P 500 for the last decade plus, but I continue to believe that over the next 10 years the returns will be much more subdued in the index than investors have become accustomed to.
Inflation report comes in better than expected
The Consumer Price Index, also known as CPI, showed headline January inflation was just 2.4%. This compares to an estimate of 2.5% and last month's reading of 2.7%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, came in line with expectations at 2.5%, but it was also lower than December's reading of 2.6% and the smallest increase since March 2021 when it climbed by just 1.6%. Food prices put a little pressure on the headline number as they were up 2.9% compared to last year. Most of this came from food away from home where prices were up 4.0%. Food at home on the other hand only saw prices climb 2.1%. Energy prices helped the headline number as prices declined 0.1% as gasoline prices fell 7.3%. Offsetting this benefit was utility prices where electricity was up 6.3% and utility gas service was up 9.8%. Many other areas saw muted price changes, and shelter continued to add pressure to both the headline and core CPI numbers. Even though the annual rate of 3.0% was lower than December's level of 3.2%, it is still above both the headline and core numbers. As a reminder, this is a huge weight at around 34-35% of headline CPI and over 40% of core CPI. If all else remains the same and shelter declines this year, I believe we could see that 2% target achieved. I was surprised to learn the Owner's Equivalent Rent (OER), which essentially measures the rate homeowners believe they could rent their house out for, carries most of the weight at over 70% of the shelter category. In January, the OER was up 3.3% while the actual rent of primary residence category was only up 2.8%.
Financial Planning: You May Be Receiving a Larger Refund
New tax rules could help many filers see larger refunds this year, with some benefits happening automatically and others requiring careful reporting. The standard deduction increased for everyone, with taxpayers aged 65 or older receiving an additional $6,000 boost. The state and local tax (SALT) cap rose from $10,000 to $40,000 for those who itemize, and the child tax credit increased by $200, from $2,000 to $2,200. These automatic changes may lower tax liability without any special reporting. However, other deductions such as those for auto loan interest, overtime pay, and tip income must be properly reported to receive the full benefit. Taxpayers should review their returns carefully to ensure all available deductions and credits are captured. If a larger refund does show up, it may be a good time to update 2026 withholding elections to increase monthly take-home pay instead of waiting all year for next year’s refund.
Companies Discussed: C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW), Cushman & Wakefield Limited (CWK), QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) & PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL)
Friday Feb 06, 2026
Friday Feb 06, 2026
Has the US dollar become too weak?
It can be difficult to filter through the headlines that make it appear that the dollar has dropped and lost 50% of its value and is getting close to collapse as some doom and gloom people would want you to believe. The truth is since January 2025; the dollar has been down about 10% against other major currencies. Keep in mind that it fluctuates every day, every hour, and every minute. This is normal, but the headlines can be very scary and it's also important to understand that over the last five years the dollar index has been up about 7%. There are pros and cons to a weak dollar. If you’re planning on traveling to Europe or some other foreign country, hotels and other items will cost you more when the dollar weakens since our dollar buys less. Also, the price of foreign cars and trucks will increase because again a dollar buys less. But the other side of the coin is that people from other parts of the world can now come to the United States and spend money in our economy since their currency now goes further. Also, many of our products that we export will be less expensive so exports should increase while our imports decrease, reducing our trade deficit. Lower interest rates can cause our dollar to fall, but a strong economy can help counterbalance that decline. Will there be a default on the dollar? The chances of that happening are extremely low for many reasons. The US dollar is still the dominant global reserve currency, which adds strength to the dollar. It is also understood that yes, we do have high debt, but also if needed, the US can print dollars to pay that debt. Looking forward to 2026, there’s a very good chance that the dollar will stabilize as the economy improves. Foreign top trading partners have pledged to invest $5 trillion in the United States. With that large investment, more travel to the US, and people buying more US products such as cars that are now a better deal due to tariffs and a weaker dollar, come the end of the year, we could actually see a firmer dollar, a booming economy and perhaps further declines in gold and silver that are still near all times highs. I get excited, just writing about it, but it will require patience for investors as I do see this as a volatile year.
18% of US adults have taken GLP-1 drugs. What’s the concern?
The price of GLP –1 drugs have come down and roughly 18% of adults in the US are using them. But there are other considerations outside of just weight loss. These drugs came out to treat type 2 diabetes and obesity not as a lifestyle change to lose 20 or 30 pounds. It is estimated that about half of people will stop taking the drug after one year and will probably be very disappointed with their future weight management. Studies have shown that when people stop taking the drug within about a year and a half, they regain most of the weight they lost. Studies also show that the weight gain comes four times faster than those who lost weight through normal dieting. While on these drugs, people see their blood pressure, cholesterol, and blood glucose levels improved, but when they’re off the drug in a little over a year, those levels go back to where they were. Kevin Hall is a former senior investigator at the National Institute of Health and a specialist in nutrition. He says once you’re off the drugs, your appetite will be much higher than it was and you could end up overeating, which leads to taking in too many calories. Another study shows people who gain weight back and decide to go back on the medication that it’s not as successful the second or third time. People also don’t realize a thing called weight cycling or gaining and losing weight and how that can affect the percent of fat to muscle. It is estimated that when you lose weight about 25 to 30% of it is muscle. But the sad part is when you have the weight gain after you’re off the drugs, it is unfortunately more fat than muscle. So, as you can see, this is not a good cycle or a good plan for 10 to 20 years. If one thinks it is a good idea to just stay on these drugs for life, there are long-term risks such as gallbladder diseases, pancreatitis, and kidney damage. The kidney damage is one that would really worry me because as you get older and you have more pain you may want to take a pain reliever like Advil or ibuprofen, but doctors now look at people’s kidneys to see if they can handle Advil or ibuprofen, which is another strain on your kidneys. Being concerned with how you look and taking the easy way to look better by popping a pill or taking an injection may cause you to have regrets when you’re older.
Is the US housing market becoming a buyer's market?
From 2020 to about 2022 it was definitely a seller's market and people could ask whatever they wanted for their home and if you didn’t take it, there would be 10 people behind you that would. Well now things are changing back to where buyers can negotiate and sometimes even get a price below the asking price. Nationwide, about 62% of homebuyers purchased their home under the listing price. The discount of 8% was also the largest since 2012. Buyers are also obtaining concessions from sellers which could be things like cash for closing costs or buying down the mortgage. As recently as December, there were 600,000 more sellers than buyers and that’s the biggest gap going back to 2013. What is helping the housing market is mortgage rates have declined a little bit, which has made homes somewhat more affordable for some buyers along with the cool-off in prices that we have seen. The best place to buy a home currently is Florida and Texas because new home construction has created a big supply of homes for sale. It can really depend on the local market you are looking at, but if you’re buying in West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, or Miami, about 85% of homebuyers paid under the original listing price. However, if you’re buying a home in Newark, New Jersey, San Francisco, or San Jose, only 39% received a discount from the original list price. It was also noted that those markets had a low amount of new construction. There could be more to come if the supply increases, and prices ease somewhat as it would likely bring more buyers back into the market. Depending on where you’re looking at buying, perhaps 2027 will be a great time to buy home.
Financial Planning: How Would an S&P 500 Portfolio Work in Retirement?
Many investors nearing retirement feel comfortable staying fully invested in the S&P 500 because recent performance has been strong, but that confidence is often based on a short window of returns rather than the long reality of retirement. Retirement can last 20 to 30 years, and during that time markets will go through multiple corrections and bear markets. Once withdrawals begin, even modest withdrawal rates can amplify losses and deplete a portfolio. The late 1990s provide a clear example when the S&P 500 produced annual returns in the 20% to 30% range for several years in a row and many investors came to believe strong gains were easy and would continue… then 2000 came. Someone withdrawing an inflation-adjusted 4% from an S&P 500 portfolio in 2000 saw the account fall to roughly half its value within just three years, meaning a retiree at 62 with $1 million was left with barley $500k by 65. For those who stayed invested, after the Great Recession 9 years into retirement around age 71, the portfolio had lost close to 2/3rds of its original value. At that point, the withdrawal rate needed to continue income was now 14%, up from the original 4%. Today the S&P 500 sits near all-time highs and trades at historically elevated forward earnings multiples, mirroring the late 90’s. While the index has delivered roughly 10% annual returns over the long term, those averages hide the danger of sequence of returns risk, where starting withdrawals before or during a downturn can permanently impair a portfolio and leave too little capital to fully recover even when markets eventually rebound.
Companies Discussed: Lennar Corporation (LEN), Sysco Corporation (SYY), Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) & Visa Inc. (V)
Friday Jan 30, 2026
Friday Jan 30, 2026
China’s population is declining
Last year's birth numbers for China recently came out and it was the lowest since 1949. What was the population of China in 1949? It was only around 540 million people so percentage wise it was a much higher birth rate than the 7.9 million we saw in 2025. With over 1.4 billion people and about 11 million people dying every year in China, it will take a long time to have results of a large declining population, but he problem with a lower birth rate than death rate is that it has major changes for an economy. China has a life expectancy of 79 years old. This means that the population is getting older, and there are fewer young people working to support the older generation that generally need more medical and social services. With an aging population, there’s generally less need for housing, schools, and businesses because older people have less need for these services which can grow an economy versus the cost of higher medical demand. China also has a problem with immigration as they have over 300,000 people more leaving versus coming in. You may be wondering how the United States stacks up? In 2025 we had 3.7 million babies born and 3.2 million deaths in the country. I was surprised to learn that the mortality age is under China’s at 78.4 years. With all the illegal immigration and the heightened status of what is going on with immigration in the United States, it is hard to come up with a concrete number. However, it is obvious that more people want to come to the United States than leave, which could help support a low birth rate.
Another history lesson shows why we don’t overpay for hot stocks
We know it's exciting to be in the next hot thing on Wall Street, but that was the same way people felt just a few years ago with hot software companies like Salesforce, Adobe and ServiceNow. Looking back, many of these once hot companies now have seen very disappointing five-year returns. As an example, Salesforce is only up around one percent over the last five years, and Adobe has actually fallen around 35% during that timeframe. The reason we won’t overpay for earnings on high flying companies is because many things can change like we have seen in the software industry. Software companies were supposed to benefit from AI, but now Anthropic's Claude code, which is an AI tool, says it can shrink the time it takes to build complex software. Also, new competition can come from startup companies that can slowly take away market share of the older companies a little bit at a time. Unfortunately, some of the software companies began to borrow substantial amounts of money and now have a highly leverage balance sheet, which could cause some problems in the future. In just the last 24 months, 13 software companies have defaulted on loans. I don’t think many of these big software companies will go out of business anytime soon, but I don’t believe their stock will run up to levels seen in the past anytime soon.
Gold has done well, but silver has surged! Should you buy it now?
Silver is now up over 250% in the last year alone as it has become immensely popular with retail investors. Many investors are excited to point out that silver has a strong use case as an industrial metal. It’s a key component in electronics, including circuit boards, switches, and solar panels thanks to the fact that it’s an excellent conductor of electricity. Thanks to increasing demand for areas such electric vehicles and growing electricity needs, largely due to the AI push, industrial use cases now account for around 60% of demand. This compares to under 50% just a decade ago. I was also surprised to learn that silver may be subject to supply shortages as about ¾ of new silver is created as a byproduct of mining other metals like copper, zinc, and lead. This has led to silver demand outstripping supply every year since 2018. While all this sounds positive, generally markets have a way of reconfiguring the supply and demand equation. I believe this could lead to companies that have silver as an input cost will instead look for alternative sources as the price has become prohibitive after the recent surge. This would then hurt demand for silver. On the supply side since the economics of finding silver is strong at this time, you could see more mining for silver and the other metals, which would then increase the supply of silver. Declining demand and increasing supply would be problematic for the price of silver. Another way to look at the value of silver is the silver-to-gold ratio which tells you how many ounces of silver you need to buy one ounce of gold. The 50-year average is around 65, but today that ratio has fallen below 50. That is the lowest ratio in over a decade. Ultimately, your guess is as good as mine for where the top is for silver, but long term I don’t believe we will see strong results from this level. Don’t forget this is a volatile asset with other historical instances of massive rallies that were followed by large declines. We have talked about the Hunt Brothers’ attempt to corner the market in the 80s, but more recently there was a bubble that occurred in 2011. The price peaked at around $49 in April of that year but quickly tumbled about 25% in just a week and ultimately ended the year at $27 for a total decline of nearly 45% from the high.
Financial Planning: Best Accounts for Kids and Grandkids
When saving for kids and grandkids, the “best” account depends on the tradeoff between tax benefits, flexibility, and control. 529 plans offer tax-free growth and withdrawals for qualified education expenses, but non-qualified withdrawals trigger federal and state taxes and penalties on earnings. Up to $35,000 can be rolled into a Roth IRA over time without federal taxes or penalties, though some states, including California, still impose taxes and penalties. Roth IRAs provide tax-free growth and tax- and penalty-free access to contributions at any age, but contributions require earned income, which many children do not have. Trump accounts function similarly to a retirement account. Funds generally cannot be accessed before age 18, and early withdrawal penalties apply until age 59½. Growth is tax-deferred, but earnings are taxed at ordinary income rates upon withdrawal, similar to a traditional IRA funded with after-tax contributions. Unlike other retirement accounts, contributions can be made before age 18 even without earned income, and funds may later be converted to a Roth IRA, though taxes would apply to earnings at conversion. Custodial accounts (UTMA/UGMA) do not offer tax-deferred growth but benefit from the kiddie tax rules. In most cases, the first $2,700 of long-term capital gains and qualified dividends are taxed at 0%, allowing smaller accounts to grow largely tax-free. However, assets must be turned over to the child at adulthood with no restrictions on use. Finally, taxable accounts in a parent’s or grandparent’s name offer maximum flexibility and control over timing and purpose of gifts, but investment earnings are taxable to the adult each year, though usually at the lower capital gain and dividend rates. Because of the control and simplicity, we often recommend taxable accounts as a core strategy, supplemented by other account types when specific needs justify them.
Companies Discussed: McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC), Zoom Communications, Inc. (ZM), Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation (BAH) & Pinterest, Inc. (PINS)
Friday Jan 23, 2026
Friday Jan 23, 2026
Looks like it is over for the Mag Seven stocks
The name Magnificent Seven came out in 2023 by a strategist from Bank of America named Michael Harnett. The idea is the name came from a classic western movie featuring seven heroic gunfighters and their push to save a small town. But just like other hot themes like the Nifty 50 back in the 60s and BRIC where you had to be invested in the emerging markets of Brazil, Russia, India and China, it looks like the Mag Seven glory days are over. In 2025, only two companies, Alphabet and Nvidia, outperformed the S&P 500. Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, and Tesla were no longer called stock market stars, and I believe this year will be another year of underperformance for most of these players. The Magnificent Seven still accounts for 36% of the S&P 500’s market cap, which is why I believe the S&P 500 will not have a great year in 2026. It will be hard for investors to give up these companies because as they look in the rearview mirror, they feel they're worth their value because they made very good returns in the past. However, just like the Nifty 50 and other hot investment themes throughout history, everything comes back to the mean. The question for many is what will be the next hot investment idea? No one knows for sure but I’m confident someone on Wall Street will come up with some exciting name for investors to chase and they'll tell them not worry about the fundamentals of the business.
Is using part of your 401(k) for a down payment on your home a good idea?
The President is trying very hard to stimulate the housing market and allow younger people to buy their first home. One idea that has been tossed around is allowing people to use their 401(k) for a down payment. People can currently borrow from their 401(k) and I often hear uninformed people say it’s a great thing because you get to pay yourself the interest. Briefly, it is not a great idea because those "interest" payments don't account for the negative impact of the opportunity for what those funds could have grown at. You also don't get a tax deduction when paying the loan, and then you pay taxes on distributions at a later date, so it also has a negative tax impact. Outside of 401k loans, how’s the administration looking to help first time homebuyers? Kevin Hassett, who is director of the National Economic Council, threw out one possibility that a homeowner could put 10% of the equity of their home into a 401(k). That may make your 401(k) balance look artificially high because as the home grows in value so does that 10%. The problem I see is when it comes to retiring that 10% cannot provide retirement income. I still believe the best way to fix the affordability problem is to increase the supply of homes to match the demand, which would reduce prices.
AI will create jobs that have not even been imagined yet
There are jobs that are starting to be seen and developed as AI becomes more involved in business. One example is someone has to make sure that the systems are kept up-to-date and function properly. There’s also going to be people that have to understand the technology thoroughly and then translate the output, so managers, judges, regulators, or anyone else that is using it understands the answer. Experts will have to understand such things as self-driving vehicles and how the technology works. Say there is a car accident with two self-driving cars, who determines who’s at fault? There will need to be experts that understand the self-driving technology and then try to explain the situation. The AI system will have to be checked from time to time to verify that the AI system did not produce results that were unfairly skewed in one direction or the other. Once that is discovered, another expert would have to know how to fix and eliminate those problems using new data that helps eliminate the bias. Training is another area of opportunity. As people’s jobs change, they will need training in the new technology. The expert trainer would also use the technology to figure out what teaching style works best for the individual. Yes, the future is always scary because of the unknown, but innovation continues onward creating new opportunities and problems that need to be solved.
Financial Planning: Start Social Security Early to Invest?
When evaluating when to start Social Security, there are generally two schools of thought. Either collect early at age 62 to invest the funds or wait until age 70 for a larger monthly benefit. Proponents of waiting argue that the age-70 benefit is roughly 77% higher than collecting at 62 and that deferring protects against longevity risk. Regular people and some financial advisors alike believe this is the superior strategy. A recent article in the Wall Street Journal takes this stance, stating that many retirees will live until age 85, so collecting at 70 increases guaranteed income and reduces market risk. However, the article illustrates its conclusion using an inflation-adjusted return assumption of –3% on invested funds. While technically possible, such an outcome is extremely unlikely over a 23-year period (ages 62 to 85), especially because the analysis applies returns to monthly payments over time rather than a lump sum, meaning the cash flows would benefit from dollar-cost averaging rather than suffer from sequence-of-returns risk. In reality, retirees who collect at 62 rarely invest the benefits directly; instead, they reduce withdrawals from an existing portfolio, preserving capital that can compound and generate additional income to offset the lower Social Security benefit. When the math is examined with multiple expected returns, a retiree is better off collecting at 62 if they live to age 78 assuming a 0% return, age 84 with a 5% return, age 94 with an 8% return, and any lifespan with a 10% return. Ultimately, the decision is less about maximizing guaranteed income and more about understanding expected returns, cash-flow dynamics, and the opportunity cost of delaying benefits.
Companies Discussed: Expand Energy Corporation (EXE), Citigroup Inc. (C), The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) & GameStop Corp. (GME)
Friday Jan 16, 2026
Friday Jan 16, 2026
There are many headwinds for short term interest rates to drop in 2026
It is no secret that the President wants our interest rates to drop dramatically to improve the economy, which as a sidenote is really not that bad. However, even though he gets to appoint a new Federal Reserve Chairman, that doesn’t guarantee lower short-term interest rates. The Federal Reserve Chairman's term ends May 15th, which means a new chairman will be appointed by the President. But the Chairman running the Federal Reserve, no matter who they are, does not make a sole decision on interest rates. It is done as a vote from all members, and it takes a majority of the 7 members to move interest rates up or down. Other factors include Mr. Powell can stay until January 2028, when his term as governor expires. This means a new governor who is in favor of reduce interest rates cannot be appointed until January 2028. There will also be changes to other members come January 31st when there are term expirations. This will be another opportunity to appoint members that are aggressive on reducing interest rates. Also, sometime this month, the Supreme Court will rule on removing or keeping Governor Lisa Cook over legal issues. If she is removed, that’s another opportunity to bring in someone aggressive on lowering rates. At the January meeting, there will be a rotation for the voting Regional Bank Presidents, which will include New York, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Dallas and Minneapolis. Some of these new voting bank presidents have explained their concerns when it comes to lowering rates, especially with the inflation target of 2% still not achieved. Speaking of that 2% inflation target, that was set back in 2012, and it’s been above 2% since March 2021. All this to say, the direction of interest rates is uncertain. If we were to see unemployment rise and more signs of slowing in the economy, we probably would see more interest rate cuts. However, if things stay status quo, I still stand behind the fact the most we will see is probably two interest rate cuts in 2026.
The tariffs seem to be working with the October trade deficit at the lowest level since 2009
The October trade deficit was only $29.4 billion, which is far better than the expected deficit of $58.4 billion. Not only was it almost half the expected amount; but it was also the lowest deficit going back 16 years to 2009. The low trade deficit was due to imports falling to $331.4 billion, but exports also increased to $302 billion. Exports benefited from the high price of gold, silver and other metals as that increased exports by $10 billion during October. The big benefit on the reduction of imports came from pharmaceuticals dropping sharply probably because in late September the administration threatened 100% tariffs on overseas pharmaceuticals. The drug makers were apparently scrambling on what to do and trying to minimize the impact going forward. The Supreme Court will not make the decision on whether the tariffs are legal or not just because they are working; they will determine if the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers act to impose tariffs is legal or not. My hope is that they do agree with it, and if not, hopefully the administration can come up with some other way of keeping the tariffs in tack as they seem to be working very well.
Is the 10% credit card interest cap a good idea?
At first glance, the average person is going to say yes that is great because current credit card rates around 23 to 24% are ridiculous. However, when you dig deeper into credit cards and how they work, people have to realize the risks for defaults and late payments are rather high. Banks that issue credit cards are in business to make a profit for their shareholders and if there’s no profit to be earned, then there’s no point in a business offering that service. The current default rate on credit cards is about 3%, which means banks have to write off the entire balance of whatever that person owed. The higher default rates are seen in ZIP Codes with lower incomes and also for younger borrows who got in over their head. If the 10% cap on credit cards does go through, it will hurt people with lower incomes and those that have lower credit scores because banks would no longer be able to be profitable on those accounts, and they would stop offering credit to them. It would also affect many across-the-board as you could see a reduction if not elimination of points and cash rewards on credit cards, which would be disappointing for many. In my opinion, it is better to have the higher interest rate on credit cards like we have today, as it broadens the pool of people that can access this tool. Unfortunately, people need to use some self-discipline to not get in over their head and make sure they can pay their payments and hopefully not carry a balance on the card. If they can do that, they pay no interest and also can benefit from cash-back and other reward programs.
Financial Planning: Who Benefits from the New Auto Loan Interest Deduction?
The new auto loan interest deduction created by the July 2025 “One Big Beautiful Bill” allows taxpayers to deduct up to $10,000 per year of interest paid on a qualified auto loan during tax years 2025 through 2028. This is an above-the-line deduction, meaning it is available even if the standard deduction is taken. To qualify, the loan must be an auto loan for a new vehicle that had final assembly in the United States purchased in 2025 through 2028. Leases, personal loans, and cars purchased before 2025 do not qualify. The deduction is subject to income phase-outs, beginning at $100,000 for single filers and $200,000 for married couples, and fully phasing out at $150,000 for single filers and $250,000 for married couples. Most states, including California, do not conform to this federal deduction, meaning it won’t reduce state income tax. However California lawmakers have proposed a separate state deduction (AB 490), but it has not become law. For people who receive the deduction, the actual tax savings will likely range from a hundred to a thousand dollars because most auto loans don’t have anywhere near $10,000 of annual interest and only taxpayers in the 10%, 12%, and 22% bracket will qualify.
Companies Discussed: Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ), Walmart Inc. (WMT), Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) & The Boeing Company (BA)
Friday Jan 09, 2026
Friday Jan 09, 2026
What the recent changes in Venezuela means for consumers
Without getting into the benefits of less drugs coming into our country, there are economic benefits from the large amount of oil reserves that are in the ground of Venezuela. The current daily consumption worldwide of oil is about 100 million barrels per day. Venezuela has in their ground over 300 billion barrels of oil. That alone would keep the world supplied for over eight years. Venezuela has the highest proven reserves in the world even above Saudi Arabia. Venezuela accounts for about 20% of the world supply of oil. Venezuela has four times the reserves compared to the US, yet in 2024 the United States produced over 13 million barrels per day compared to Venezuela producing under 1 million barrels per day. There is talk that the big oil companies could be going into Venezuela and they could definitely increase that production by a large amount, which would benefit not just Venezuela but also the world markets and the United States consumer. The way the United States consumer would benefit is from lower gas prices at the pump and with oil currently trading in the high 50s, we could see that drop to the low 50s maybe even a little bit below that. This will not only put more money in US consumers' pockets, but it would also help the Venezuela population as the production of oil would create many good paying jobs and could lead to a ripple effect for other businesses with more money coming into their economy. The recent events occurred just a few days ago and a lot has yet to be played out, but make no mistake there are many benefits if Venezuela can produce a lot more oil for the world.
It’s a new year, is it time to hire or change to a new investment advisor?
With the new year, investors should take a look to see how their investments have done and how their investment advisor has been working with them. The beginning of the year is a fresh start, so it’s time to see what your percentage return was on your portfolio in 2025 and evaluate if your advisor kept you updated and gave you the customer service you need like returning your phone calls in a reasonable timeframe. You don’t want to jump from the pan into the fire, so when you’re looking for a new investment advisor, be sure that the company and the advisor are full fiduciaries, which means they must do what is best for you, not what is best for themselves. Ask yourself the question, is the advisor trying to sell me products that he or she makes a big commission off of? That could be a red flag that they don’t have your best interest in mind. It's also important to understand the investment strategy the firm and the advisor use. Do they use mutual funds or build your own portfolio with individual equities and investments that are liquid and don’t tie your money up for years to come in case the investment underperforms. I always believe it is worth asking the advisor how they manage their own personal portfolio. If it’s good enough for them, why is it not good enough for you? I know some advisors will say they have different objectives, but I think everyone has the same objective of making a reasonable return on their investments. And lastly, don’t be afraid to ask how they get paid when managing your investments. It may seem like an uncomfortable question, but if it’s an excessive amount, that can be a red flag. If the advisor is trying to dodge the question, that means to me, they’re trying to hide something from you at the very beginning, and you should runaway immediately. Take your time to find the right advisor, if you feel pressure from constant phone calls and high sales tactics, you probably want to look for someone else to work with on your investments.
The labor market ends the year on a soft note
This jobs report was special considering it was the first on time report in 3 months, but I'd say the data was lackluster. Nonfarm payrolls in December increased by 50,000, which was short of the estimate of 76,000. The two prior months also saw downward revisions that totaled 76,000. For the full year, payroll employment grew by 584,000, which equates to a monthly average of about 49,000 new jobs per month. This was less than 2024's gain of 2 million jobs or about 168,000 per month and actually registers as the worst payroll growth outside of a recession since 2003. While this all might sound troubling, it is important to remember that changes to government jobs had a large impact on the data. Since reaching a peak in January, government employment fell by 277,000 jobs. This obviously created a huge headwind for headline payroll growth. With that said, the labor market was still in a slower growth environment, and I continue to believe that will be the case as we move forward considering the unemployment rate still remains healthy at 4.4%. It's also important to remember that of those counted as unemployed, about 26% or 1.9 million people are considered long-term unemployed as they have been jobless for 27 weeks or more. I always do wonder how actively these people are looking for jobs. In terms of areas of strength in the report, both healthcare and foodservices and drinking places remained healthy. Health care employment was up 21,000 in the month and for the full year averaged monthly gains of 34,000. This was down from 2024's monthly average of 56,000, but still strong. Foodservices and drinking places saw employment grow by 27,000 jobs in the month and for the full year averaged monthly gains of 12,000 jobs, which was similar to 2024's average of 11,000 jobs added per month. Retail trade was the real headwind for the month as employment declined by 25,000 jobs. This could be due to seasonal changes, but it was interesting to see retail trade employment showed little net change in both 2024 and 2025. The other major industries in the report showed little to no changes in the month. Overall, I believe this continues to show that we remain in a slow hire/low fire labor environment and I don't see much evidence that will change this year.
Financial Planning: Mortgage-Backed Security Purchase Lowers Mortgage Rates
The U.S. government’s announcement of a $200 billion purchase of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is already pushing 30-year mortgage rates below 6%, creating an opportunity for homeowners and prospective buyers. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates and also purchased MBS, which helped push mortgage rates down. Mortgage rates are not directly tied to the Federal Reserve interest rates, but the purchase of mortgage-backed securities is something that would directly lower mortgage rates. This is because investors purchase mortgages after origination for the interest income paid by homeowners, so Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buying these securities increases demand which lowers the interest rates borrowers get on mortgages. For those with higher mortgage rates, this could be an opportunity to cut that down. I don’t think we are yet at a point where it makes sense to buy down the rates further, but there is no limit to the number of refinances someone can do. It may be best to refinance now and then again in another year or so.
Companies Discussed: Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN), Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT), Generac Holdings Inc. (GNRC) & Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX)
Wednesday Dec 31, 2025
Wednesday Dec 31, 2025
- Financial Outlook for 2026
- Companies Discussed: Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC), NIKE, Inc. (NKE), Micron Technology, Inc. (MU), Lennar Corporation (LEN)
Friday Dec 19, 2025
Friday Dec 19, 2025
How did China’s trade surplus hit $1.1 trillion this year?
The United States purchased around $450 billion of manufactured goods from China in 2024, but trade has dropped between the two countries so how did China have a record surplus of $1.1 trillion through November 2025? The current tariff on goods imported from China is around 37% according to the Tax Policy Center and imported goods from China have dropped dramatically. China has been able to increase their exports to other countries to more than compensate for the loss of exports to the United States which are down roughly 19%. China has seen an increase of exports to Southeast Asia of 14%, the European Union has increased 8%, and Latin America saw a 7% increase in exports from China. A big increase of 25% in exports to Africa was also very helpful to China’s manufacturing surplus. Even though they’re turning out more cars, manufacturing products and chemicals than ever before, it has created a very heavy competition in China which is pushing down prices, profits, and income for the Chinese manufacturing companies. There will not be another round of talks between the US and Chins until next year. At the last set of trade talks the US did lower our tariffs and China promised to buy American soy beans and end a plan to tighten the export of rare earths, which are critical and found in many products from jet engines to cars and many other electronics as well. We will continue to follow the developments of these trade talks as there should be more news coming next year!
Finally some data on the labor market!
With the government shutdown, a lot of the data for the labor market was delayed. We finally got employment figures for October and November, and they were interesting to say the least! To start, the October numbers looked horrific considering payrolls declined by 105,000 in the month. While this sounds troubling, it's important to remember all of those government workers on severance were still counted as employed until the severance ended. This led to a decline in government payrolls of 162,000 in the month of October. Losses in government payrolls continued in November, but at a much slower rate as they tallied 6,000 in the month. Since reaching a peak in January, government employment has seen a decline of 271,000 jobs. Looking at November, payrolls increased by 64,000, but healthcare continued to carry most of the weight as the sector accounted for more than 70% of the total net increase and added 46,000 jobs. Construction was also strong in the month as the sector added 28,000 jobs, but many other areas saw little change and transportation and warehousing was weak as payrolls declined by 18,000. Another concern in the report was the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.6%, which was above the 4.4% level in September and marked the highest reading since September 2021. Overall, when I look at the labor market it is definitely slowing, but I wouldn't say I'm overly concerned at this point in time. While it is concerning to see declines in the payroll level in three of the last six months, for the most part the private market has done a good job picking up the large declines in the government sector, which I view as healthy. I don't want to say our labor market is booming at this point in time, but I would still classify as relatively healthy.
Inflation report shows great progress, can it be trusted?
Headline November CPI came in at 2.7% compared to last November, which was well below the estimate of 3.1% and core CPI, which excludes food and energy, showed an increase of just 2.6%. This was the lowest reading for core CPI since March 2021 when the increase was just 1.6% and it also came in well below the estimate of 3.0%. Some areas in the report remained challenging particularly in food, where we saw uncooked beef roast climb 21.2% and coffee increase by 18.8%. Beef prices have struggled as cattle supply touched its lowest point in 2025 since the early 1950s and coffee prices have been hit by extreme weather in major coffee-producing countries as well as the tariffs levied on Brazil. Shelter inflation was positive in the report as the annual increase was just 3% and it's believed there is more relief coming for the largest weight in the CPI, which generally occupies around 1/3 of the headline number. If the inflation for shelter slows further, it would be very beneficial for the inflation rate as we progress through 2026. The big problem with this report is there are questions about how accurate the data is. Due to the shutdown, there was no data collected for the month of October, and the BLS was only able to collect data for about half the month of November as the shutdown did not end until November 12th. For the time being we are pleased with the results from this CPI report, but I do believe there will now be even more emphasis on the December CPI as that will be the first full month of data following the record-breaking government shutdown.
Want to become a millionaire? Invest in your 401(k)!
There are more and more people with $1 million or more in a 401(k) as companies like Fidelity and Vanguard are seeing record numbers of people with accounts of more than $1 million. Fidelity said they hit the highest level ever when it comes to 401k millionaires with about 3.2% of their 401k’s or 654,000 accounts now over $1 million. Vanguard also had similar numbers for 401k millionaires. Becoming a 401k millionaire is not a get rich quick scheme, but it's a proven way to build your wealth long-term with proper investment choices. It is estimated that roughly 86% of those with $1 million plus in their 401k are 50 or older. It is also estimated that around 1000 people per day become 401k millionaires in the US. The key to becoming a 401K millionaire is to invest wisely, which means not too aggressive, but also not too conservative. Also, when a portfolio drops, you cannot sell everything and wait for the market to get better, you or an investment professional must verify that you have good quality investments in your portfolio that can handle the financial storms and also it's important to continue adding to your portfolio during these difficult times. It is important not to pull money out from your 401(k) for any reason at all, no matter how bad you think the situation is, it will improve. It is much better to deal with problems when you’re young rather than when you're in your 60s because you did not let your 401(k) grow to over a million dollars.
Financial Planning: Taking Advantage of Itemized Deductions Before December 31st
With the repeal of the $10,000 SALT deduction limit, many taxpayers may once again benefit from itemizing deductions rather than taking the standard deduction, and there are practical steps that can be taken before year-end to further enhance that benefit. The SALT deduction includes both state income taxes and property taxes, and because individuals are cash-basis taxpayers, deductions are generally taken when expenses are paid rather than when they are due, meaning that paying certain obligations before December 31st can shift future deductions into the current tax year. In California and many other states, property taxes are paid in two installments, with the first due in December and the second due in April. If the April installment is paid by December 31st, it may be deductible in the current year instead of the following one. Similarly, the final state estimated tax payment is typically due on January 15th, but making that payment in December allows the deduction to be taken in the current year. Another significant itemized deduction is mortgage interest, and while mortgage payments are usually due on the first of the month, making the January 1st payment in December can allow the interest from that payment to be deducted in 2025 rather than 2026. In addition, charitable deduction rules are scheduled to change in 2026 and will be subject to an adjusted gross income (AGI) limitation, which means taxpayers who are charitably inclined may benefit from accelerating planned donations into the current year while the rules are more favorable. Taken together, these strategies tend to be most effective when income is higher in the current year, as accelerating deductions while in higher tax brackets results in greater overall tax savings.
Companies Discussed: Oxford Industries, Inc. (OXM), Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) & Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)
Friday Dec 12, 2025
Friday Dec 12, 2025
Another lawsuit against generative AI company Perplexity for copyright infringement
The New York Times has had enough, and they have filed a lawsuit in a New York Federal court. In October 2024, the Times sent a notice to stop accessing and using their content and then followed up with another notice this past July. Perplexity continues to ignore the warnings and a spokesperson for the company, Jesse Dwyer, said publishers have been suing new tech companies for a hundred years starting with radio, TV, the Internet and social media, but that has never worked out for them. I think this is a little bit different since AI pretty much takes the content directly from the publisher and publishes it for people to read. The Times is also including infringements for use of its videos, podcasts and images. The Times said in the lawsuit they are seeking damages, which at this point is unknown and injunctive relief which includes removing all of the Times content from Perplexity’s products. This would be a major problem for Perplexity if they were to lose this case because the whole AI system pulls information from all across the web, and this would leave a big hole in the end result of Perplexity’s information. The Times is not the only publisher suing Perplexity, other lawsuits have been filed by Dow Jones and the New York Post. If one company were to win in court that would be a major problem for AI companies like Perplexity. First it would set a precedent and other publishers would likely sue, it could also lead to less accurate information as there would be less sources to pull data from.
Just when Apple corrected their major problems, it looks like there’s a management drain
Apple did a great job handling the proposed tariffs on its products, which would have devastated the company. Also, in court they managed to keep the $20 billion a year they receive from Google. But now, they seem to be fighting a management exit by some of their top executives. Over the last couple of weeks, it was announced that both their General Council and Head of Policy will be retiring next year. Another major concern was also announced in that timeframe that their Head of Artificial Intelligence and Strategy is also going to retire. Making matters worse, their Chief Operating Officer said he’ll be retiring in July of next year. Don’t worry about CEO Tim Cook being age 65, he said he is not considering retirement, and people at the company said he is not slowing down at all. It was also recently announced that Meta has taken from Apple a top designer named Alan Dye. Also Jony Ive, who is a Steve Jobs protégé and helped build the iPhone along with the Apple Watch, is heading over to OpenAI to help Sam Altman. It’s not just the top people leaving though as apparently dozens of Apple engineers along with designers who are knowledgeable in audio, watch design, robotics, and much more are also finding a new home at OpenAI. Running a major technology company like Apple and striving for new innovation makes it difficult when a company is losing top management and star engineers and designers. I don’t think this will cause a major drop in the stock short term, but it could be difficult longer term for the company when it comes to innovation and new products, which could concern investors in the years to come!
It’s time to put some commercial property into your portfolio
You may be questioning why would I put real estate like commercial property in my portfolio that over the last five years or so has had a return of maybe 7% versus stocks that have done much better? The simple answer is the basic investing principle of buying low and selling high. Looking forward, I believe commercial real estate over the next five years should get better returns than artificial intelligence considering the fact that it is very pricey. Data from MSCI revealed that year to date large investors have purchased $4.6 billion more US commercial property than they sold. That is the first time that has happened in three years, and deal activity is still low compared to history. US commercial real estate values are off from the peak in 2022 and are now down on average around 17%. Looking just at commercial offices, there is a better discount considering there are down around 36% from their peak. History shows this could be a very good opportunity. There’s only been two times over the last roughly 50 years or so when commercial property prices were down more than 10%. You have to go back to the early 1990s, which was about 35 years ago, and who could forget the 2008 great recession. How should you invest in office buildings and commercial property? The best and the easiest way is to use public real estate investment trusts, which are known as REITs. Please do not let your broker sell you private real estate of any sort so they can get paid a big commission. REITs that trade on the market are commission free and completely liquid unlike private real estate deals. With public REITs you can many times receive good investment yields between 4% and 6%. However, make sure to understand the fundamentals to insurethat dividend yield is safe. A history lesson shows that commercial property under performed from 1997 to 2000 when the tech boom was happening, but when the tech boom ended and went bust, commercial real estate did very well. Could the same thing happen now as there are signs that the AI rally could end? If you do invest in a good quality public real estate investment trust, you should have at least a 4 to 5 year time horizon to hold that investment.
Financial Planning: The Benefits of Capital Gain Harvesting
While many investors focus on tax-loss harvesting, harvesting capital gains can be just as valuable especially when you fall into the 0% long-term capital gains bracket. For example, in 2025 a married couple filing jointly can have taxable income up to $96,700 and still pay 0% on long-term gains. Because the standard deduction ranges from $31,500 to $46,700, and itemized deductions can be even larger, a household’s total gross income can potentially exceed $150,000 while still remaining in the 0% capital gains bracket. If an investor wants to keep the same investment, they can immediately repurchase it, since wash-sale rules do not apply to gains. However, even though the gain itself is taxed at 0%, the added income may increase the taxation of Social Security benefits, pulling more of those benefits into taxable income. For those who don’t face that issue, gain harvesting resets their cost basis and reduces the taxes they will owe later if they sell in a higher-income year when their capital gains rate jumps to 15% or even 20%. This strategy can also make sense for those currently in the 15% capital gains bracket who expect to be pushed into the 20% bracket later. Overall, capital-gain harvesting can be a powerful tool in years of temporarily low income.
Companies Discussed: The Brink's Company (BCO), PVH Corp. (PVH), Pure Storage, Inc. (PSTG) & The Kroger Co. (KR)
Friday Dec 05, 2025
Friday Dec 05, 2025
We have gone through four industrial revolutions in the US, why does the AI revolution scare us the most?
Industrial revolutions are nothing new in the United States as we have had four including the current one we are in. The first one came in the mid-18th century when changes came for waterpower, steam engines, and textile manufacturing. The second industrial revolution was in the mid-19th century when steel became a big factor along with electricity and mass production. We also saw transportation by railroads and automobiles during this revolution. The third industrial revolution came around the mid-1990s. Some of us who are 50 years or older may remember the effects. Electronics including personal computers, information technologies, and this scary thing called the World Wide Web were developed during this revolution. The fourth industrial revolution is happening now and it’s scary because we don’t know what the future holds. This revolution includes digital, physical, and biological technologies. This includes AI, the Internet of Things, and robotics as well. The reason this is scarier than the third revolution with personal computers was that people could see how they could benefit and get more done and maybe use that computer to start a web-based business. Currently with AI, people are not seeing how it will benefit or improve their lives but only how it could take away their livelihood by making their job obsolete. There could be a slowdown in the advancement of AI similar to what happened in the late 70s with nuclear power. People as a whole rejected nuclear power, and it has taken almost 50 years to be accepted as we can see in today’s newspapers. Based on history, it looks like the acceptance of AI may slow down because polls show that just 40% of people said the AI industry could be trusted to do the right thing, and 57% say the government needs more regulation on tech and AI. Maybe your job is safe for longer than you thought.
Bitcoin holder Strategy should be getting nervous about the price of Bitcoin
The public company Strategy, which used to be known as MicroStrategy and trades under the symbol MSTR, should be getting nervous about its 650,000 Bitcoins that are worth around $56 billion depending on the day. The problem is the company has about $8 billion of convertible bonds outstanding that require interest payments and about $7.6 billion of perpetual preferred stock that also pays dividends. The cost to pay the interest and these dividends is about $780 million annually and since all the company’s assets are essentially in Bitcoin, they don’t receive any interest or profits from that asset. The CEO, Michael Slayer, is saying if they must, they will sell Bitcoin to raise the cash to pay the dividends and interest payments. The convertible bonds could also be problematic down the road as they are due in about 4.4 years on average and come with a combined interest rate of 0.421%. The stock itself has been pulverized, and its market cap has been as low as $49 billion from a high of $128 billion in July. MSCI has proposed cutting digital asset treasury companies from its indexes if crypto tokens make up a major part of the assets. This decision will come in a little over a month on January 15th and if this happens, Strategy could see $2.8 billion in passive outflows. JPMorgan estimates that about $9 billion of the company's market cap is tied to passive and index ETFs and mutual funds. This could put more pressure on the stock if more indexes also decide to remove these treasury companies. You won’t believe how the company makes their profit and loss statement. When the price of Bitcoin rises, the company books a paper profit even if it did not sell any Bitcoin. Obviously, if Bitcoin goes down in value, they must book the losses as well. One must love the estimates for the earnings of Strategy for 2025. Strategy is expected to report a loss of $5.5 billion or a profit of $6.3 billion or something in between. That is some great guidance! I don’t know where Bitcoin is going today, tomorrow or anytime in the future, but I would be sweating bullets if I held Bitcoin or Strategy in my clients’ portfolios or my portfolio!
Holiday shopping hits record levels!
We continue to see conflicting data when it comes to the health of the consumer. They continue to say they don't feel good, but the hard data and the actual numbers remain quite strong. In a positive note from the National Retail Federation (NRF), an estimated 202.9 million consumers shopped during the five-day stretch from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday. That is the largest turnout since data for the five-day period started being collected in 2017, and it easily tops last year's level of 197 million shoppers. Expectations for the period were also quite low considering the estimate was for just 186.9 million shoppers. While online shoppers increased 9% year over year to 134.9 million people, in-store shoppers still saw a nice increase of 3% to 129.5 million people. Adobe also provided sales data for the five-day period that indicated consumers spent $44.2 billion online, which was a 7.7% year-over-year jump. Black Friday in particular saw strong online sales as they totaled $11.8 billion and grew by 9.1% year over year. A big question here is if the shopping was done to capitalize on deals in an attempt to save money. That could be an indicator of a weaker economy, but I don't believe that's the full story as shoppers told NRF at the end of Cyber Monday that they had about 53% of their holiday shopping remaining, which was similar to a year ago. For the full holiday season, the NRF expects record sales of between $1.1 trillion and $1.2 trillion from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31. This would be the first time sales would top $1 trillion, and it would represent a 3.7% to 4.2% increase from the year-ago holiday period.
Financial Planning: When Tax-Loss Harvesting Makes Sense and When It Doesn’t
Tax-loss harvesting is often promoted as a smart tax-saving strategy, but investors should understand its pitfalls before hitting the sell button. Selling a position at a loss may reduce taxes today, but it could also mean missing a rebound in that investment potentially costing more in lost gains than the tax benefit received. For example, if an investor buys a stock for $50,000 and harvests a $5,000 loss when the investment drops to $45,000, and they are in a 24.3% combined tax bracket (15% federal + 9.3% state), the tax savings is just over $1,200. That means the investment only needs to rise 2.7% to wipe out the benefit of harvesting, something that could easily occur during the required 30-day wash-sale waiting period. Even if the position doesn’t rebound, repurchasing after 31 days locks in a lower cost basis, potentially increasing future taxable gains possibly in a higher tax bracket. Many investors, especially retirees with lower taxable income, are already in the 0% long-term capital gains bracket, meaning losses may not even be needed; a married couple in retirement could have income near $150,000 and still realize long-term gains tax-free. Tax-loss harvesting can still be valuable when losses are large in percentage terms, when it helps avoid a higher tax bracket or IRMAA surcharges, when offsetting short-term gains (which long-term losses can do), or when exiting a position you don’t plan to repurchase.
Companies Discussed: Weyerhaeuser Company (WY), Netflix, Inc. (NFLX), Energizer Holdings, Inc. (ENR) & Valvoline Inc. (VVV)
Friday Nov 21, 2025
Friday Nov 21, 2025
Fast food restaurants like Wendy’s are experiencing a slowdown in business
The fast-food restaurant Wendy’s is planning on closing hundreds of locations throughout next year because they continue to see a slowdown in spending from their customers. They said most of their low-income consumers are cutting spending and making fewer trips with smaller purchases at the restaurants. Wendy’s increased prices after the pandemic at a higher rate than grocery stores and now other fast-food restaurants have begun to add value menus to keep customers coming back, but Wendy’s has held firm and not created any values for their customers. Because of this they have seen their net income decline to $44.3 million from a year ago when it was $50.2 million. Over the past year the stock has declined from around $18 a share down to under $9 a share, which is a decline of 53%. With the reduction in the stock price, the dividend yield is now 6.5% and the company trades at 10 times earnings on a forward basis. This company may be worth looking into as an investment as within in the next 6 to 12 months we could see lower end consumers stabilize.
The affordability index for people buying a home is the worst in 50 years
People may be excited about buying a home because mortgage rates are around the lowest they’ve been in over a year, but the affordability of a home is still far out of reach for many. The reason for this, and we have talked about this for the last few years, is that the increase in the price of homes has far outpaced the increase in people’s income. The 50-year average for a price-to-income ratio is around four times, and it reached a low in 1999 of around 3.6 times. But with the rapid increase of homes over the last few years, the price to income ratio has climbed to slightly over five times. Also not helping are the increases in home insurance costs and property taxes. Back in the summer of 2019, when looking at households earning $75,000, nearly 50% of those people could afford to buy a home. Today, when looking at those same households earning $75,000, only 21% would be able to afford a home. Back in 2012, the home affordability index was over 200, but it has now been cut in half to just about 100 with no signs of improving any time soon. I believe it will probably take 3 to 5 years to correct itself. If you look back in history, the affordability index does not change overnight. What will happen is probably incomes will increase slightly over the next 3 to 5 years and maybe the price of homes will either stay the same or decline slightly, which would increase the affordability index. What this means for people buying a home today is you should not have any aspirations of a rapid increase in the value of your home. What caused the problem was during the pandemic mortgage rates dropped to lows not seen in 50 years and that pushed up demand and the prices for homes climbed at a rapid rate. I believe this scenario is extremely unlikely to play out again!
The brokerage firm Robinhood looks more like a gambling platform than a brokerage firm
Robinhood initially went public at $38 a share in 2023 and the stock then fell to under $10 a share. It has recovered nicely since then as it’s now trading around $110 a share. What has caused this shift and the huge increase in the stock price? One big reason is that the company has really allowed major speculation for their investors. Starting off with crypto, they have allowed people to buy coins like BONK, Dogwifhat and Pudgy Penguins. Just when you think there’s no way they could come up with anything more speculative, surprise; they have come up with an investment known as prediction markets and event trading. Somehow the regulators have let this slide or maybe since government agencies don’t move that quickly, it just has not been addressed yet. It appears for investors on their app that you can predict what the outcome will be of a football game, politics, contracts over economics, even if aliens will exist on earth this year. Chief Brokerage Officer, Steve Quirk, says this is the fastest growing business we have ever had. Robinhood stock trades over 50 times projected earnings and is looking for about $4.5 billion in revenue, which is an increase of 53% over last year. The growth appears to be there for the company, but there is so much speculation and insane crazy things there is no doubt in my mind that in the future many people will lose more money than they ever thought was possible by speculating on crazy things rather than investing into good quality businesses. A fallout in those risky "investments" could hurt Robinhood's reputation, which I believe would be bad for long term growth.
Financial Planning: The Real Cost of Employer Coverage vs. Medicare
When reaching age 65, sometimes there is the option to join Medicare or stay with an employer health insurance plan. This is most common when a spouse retires after age 65 and they have the ability to join their spouse’s work plan. When comparing the cost of coverage, there is a key difference in how each affects your tax bill. Premiums paid through payroll for employer-sponsored health insurance are pre-tax, meaning you avoid federal, state, and payroll taxes such as the 6.2% Social Security, 1.45% Medicare, and 1.2% CA SDI tax in California. This is different from a 401(k) for example where contributions are only pre-tax from federal and state taxes. For someone in the 22% tax bracket, a $500 premium would be around $300 after the tax savings. Medicare premiums on the other hand are paid with after-tax dollars and are only tax-deductible for people who itemize and have total medical expenses exceeding 7.5% of AGI, which means very few retirees actually receive any tax benefit. Additionally, Medicare Part B and D premiums may be elevated due to higher levels of income because of IRMAA. Employer health insurance can vary in coverage and cost so at times Medicare may be a more comprehensive and cost-effective option, but it is necessary to compare the after-tax costs to be sure.
Companies Discussed: Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO), The Walt Disney Company (DIS), Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc. (SPB), Maplebear Inc. (CART)