March 22nd, 2025 | Stock Market Pain, Top Consumers, Long-Term Stocks, Form 5498, Tesla, Inc (TSLA), Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT), Lear Corporation (LEAR) & Gilead Sciences, Inc.

Is there more pain coming for the stock market?
Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 have now hit correction territory and people are hoping that the worst is behind us. I would tell people to be prepared for more pain. The tariffs are still a big concern and the uncertainty around them has not cleared. Also, even with the pullback valuations for stocks are still high. We base our concerns on the fact that many valuation ratios are elevated compared to historical levels, but one that really stands out is the CAPE ratio, which stands for cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings. This was developed by professor Robert Shiller many years ago and the ratio uses a 10-year average of inflation adjusted earnings to value stocks. In January, it was at 37.74, which was the third highest level in the past 100 years. Not only was it the third highest level, but it was higher than what it was in 1929. After the ratio hit these high levels in the past, stocks declined dramatically. I believe with the headwinds ahead, we could be in for some stormy waters over the next 3 to 6 months.

 

How much more do top consumers spend?

When looking at consumer spending it is obvious that is not a constant level straight across the board and people making more money would obviously be spending more money in the economy. But just how much more is the high-end consumer spending than the average consumer? The top 10% of consumers account for 49.7% of consumer spending. If you’re thinking that sounds high, you are correct. You would have to go back to 1989 to match that type of imbalance for consumer spending. Is it a bad thing? Not really. The high-end consumer is what is keeping the economy going overall as it creates jobs and allows for the continued movement of money.

 

Holding stocks long-term doesn’t always pay off

You probably have heard that you should hold stocks for the long-term and you’ll be fine. I generally I agree with this statement, but there are always exceptions to the rule and that holds true here. If you look at different 10-year holding periods, you will see more losing periods than you probably expected. As an example, the 10-year period ending February 2009 had a loss of 37.4%. There are other 10-year holding periods such as the ones ending September 1974, August 1939, June 1921, October 1857 and April 1842 that all had losses ranging from 23 to 37.3 percent. Those losses are in real terms adjusted for inflation. One reason these periods had great losses is they were generally periods when there was high speculation that then caused prices to rise to elevated levels just to see them fall back to reality. This is why it is important for investors to not just buy into a story of a stock, but to understand what they are paying for the earnings, sales, book value, and cash flow of the business. If you don’t keep your eye on these valuation ratios, you would not realize when the stock becomes overpriced and you could end up with a big loss and then be left wondering what happened. I’ve been managing money for over 40 years and have continued to keep my eye on the ball as far as what we pay for any investment whether it is stock, real estate or bonds. If you invest blindly just based on the stock going up and the hype around the story, you could end up with a period of 10 years where you made no gains and then think stocks are risky or a bad investment. In a situation like that, it is similar to driving down the street with a bag over your head not seeing what is around you.

 

Financial Planning: What is Form 5498?

When funds are distributed from a retirement account, a 1099-r is generated and used to file your taxes to report what kind of distribution it was.  This is true whether the distribution is taxable or not.  For example, if you rolled money from a 401(k) to an IRA, it is a non-taxable rollover, but a 1099-r is still created since funds left the 401(k) which needs to be reported.  A Form 5498 is generated when funds are received by any type of IRA for any reason.  So, if you made contributions, conversions, or recharacterizations with a traditional, Roth, SEP, or Simple IRA, you will receive a 5498 stating what happened.  Depending on what you did, you will likely need to report the activity on your taxes.  The problem is, in many cases the Form 5498 is not ready until May of the following year, even though taxes are due the previous month, on April 15^th.  Here are some examples where this can create problems. If you did an indirect rollover where you withdrew retirement funds and replaced them within 60 days, the withdrawal should not be taxable.  However, if only the 1099-r from the distribution is reported because there is no 5498 that shows money was replaced, it may be reported as a taxable distribution rather than a rollover.  If you are doing backdoor Roth contributions, a 1099-r is generated when the funds are converted from the traditional IRA to the Roth.  If it is not also reported that a non-deductible contribution was first made to the traditional IRA, the conversion may be treated as a taxable conversion.  Lastly, if you have been making deductible traditional IRA contributions, but there is no 5498 showing the contributions, you may not receive the tax deduction.  I don’t know why this form comes later than other tax forms, but this is necessary to be aware of to correctly report tax information and avoid unnecessary tax.

 

Companies Discussed: Tesla, Inc (TSLA), Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT), Lear Corporation (LEAR) & Gilead Sciences, Inc.