May 11, 2024 | Cash & Money Markets, AI & Jobs, Apple in China and the Tax Rate on Gold

Cash & Money Markets are not Long-Term Investments 

With many companies in the stock market more expensive than we’d like to see, we have been sitting on more cash in a money market than we normally would. While the 5% or so in interest is nice for the time being, we are using this as a temporary parking place until we find a good long-term investment. It could take one week or it could be three months, but the important factor is we are not considering this as a long-term investment. I know many people right now are happy with their money market rates and would totally miss a great opportunity if it presents itself to continue investing in the money market. I believe this will be extremely damaging for their long-term returns, especially as short-term rates are likely to fall. Looking long term cash will likely not beat stocks and in a recent Vanguard paper, they showed global stocks earned about 6% more a year than cash from 1901 to 2022. Don’t become complacent with the short-term yields, as you could miss a great investment that could help you over the next three to five years. 

AI and Jobs

Some people are worried about artificial intelligence taking away many jobs. I remember hearing about the same concern when computers first came out, but in reality, they created new jobs. Investment firm Goldman Sachs projects that by the end of 2034, artificial intelligence could boost the GDP to 2.3%. According to the Census Bureau’s November 2023 Business Trends and Outlook Survey, only 3.9% of businesses nationwide have used artificial intelligence, which includes machine learning, natural language processing, virtual agents and voice recognition. Another survey by Deloitte discovered that 87% of private businesses who were surveyed, expect artificial intelligence to increase their labor productivity within the next three years. It is true that change is always scary and it is true that AI will replace some jobs, but it will also create jobs that haven’t even been thought of yet. It will also make our economy more productive, which then should increase the overall wealth of consumers. 

Apple in China

Relations between the US and China are rather strained currently and Apple could be paying the price for that. In the Wall Street Journal, they released information that the company has discounted phones in China by $70, which normally sell for around $600 on average. On a side note, wouldn’t be great to get an iPhone for $600? Consumers in China have been switching to Huawei phones as the government in China and consumers begin to feel more comfortable with the company’s technological progress. If you remember a while back, we did post that the Chinese government had banned the use of iPhones in government agencies. So, Apple is now fighting with the government of China, despite what Tim Cook says and they are also fighting with the Federal Trade Commission in United States as well. They are definitely in the middle of some major storms, which could go on for years hampering sales growth for their products. This could cost the company their premium valuation on earnings, which means no stock growth going forward at best. There could also be a pull back in the stock on the horizon if they are not able to return to sound growth. 

Financial Planning: Tax Rate on Gold

Investing in gold has been popular recently, but it is important for investors to understand how gold is taxed. Federally there are 7 tax brackets (10%, 12%, 22%, 24%, 32%, 35%, 37%) which ordinary income is subject to. Ordinary income includes most sources like wages, interest, and IRA distributions. There are also separate brackets for certain types of investment income like long-term capital gains and qualified dividends. Depending on the amount of taxable income, the tax rate is either 0%, 15%, or 20%, plus there can be an extra 3.8% tax if AGI is above $200k or $250k depending on filing status. Basically, this type of investment income will always be taxed at a lower rate than if it had been received as ordinary income. There is also a third set of brackets that is applied to income earned from collectibles, which includes gold. If gold is bought and sold more than a year later for more, it is considered a collectible long-term capital gain which is taxed at ordinary income rates for those in the 10%, 12%, 22%, or 24% brackets. For those in the 32%, 35%, or 37% brackets, gold is taxed at a maximum rate of 28%, but it can also be subject to the additional 3.8% net investment income tax for those with higher AGI levels. This tax rate includes investments backed by physical gold such as a gold ETF. If you are considering buying gold, be prepared to pay more taxes than you would on other types of investment income.

 

Stocks Discussed: Starbucks (SBUX), Chegg (CHGG) and Apple (AAPL)