May 23rd, 2025 | U.S. Credit Downgrade, EV Declines, 401(k) Private Investments, New SALT Proposal, CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA), First Solar, Inc. (FSLR), Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI), & (UNH)

The U.S. just received a downgrade to its credit rating, should you worry?

Last week, Moody’s announced it downgraded the United States sovereign credit rating from AAA to Aa1. While a downgrade is important to understand and can have negative consequences for interest rates, this downgrade did not seem too problematic. I mainly say that because Moody’s was the last major credit rating agency to have the U.S. at the highest possible rating. The first downgrade carried the most weight in my opinion as it had the highest shock value. Standard & Poor’s was the first to move in August 2011 and the stock market fell 6.66% the session after the announcement. Fitch then lowered its rating on U.S. debt in August 2023 and the stock market lost 1.38%. After this Moody’s downgrade the stock market seemed to have little reaction as it actually had a small increase following the news. While this downgrade may sound scary, I don’t believe it will have long term consequences considering the fact that US debt is still viewed as a very safe asset. With that said, the US does need to address the growing deficit problem as further downgrades from these credit agencies could cause problems.

 

Demand for electric vehicles is falling dramatically

Electric vehicle sales in the month of April declined 5% while the overall car market grew by 10%. This is only the third monthly decline in four years for electric vehicles. The reason for the decline is consumers are watching their spending more than they have in a while and many of the deals and promotions for electric vehicles have disappeared. It was not just Tesla who had difficulty because of Elon Musk’s political association, but even Kia, Hyundai and Ford experienced drops. Rivian was hit hardest on their R1T pickup truck as it saw a 50% decline in sales for April. With some of the crazy electric vehicle lease deals gone, consumers are also asking the question about charging related concerns. There are some car buyers who were considering buying an electric vehicle but they said it’s not worth the stress of charging your vehicle all the time. It’s just much easier to pull into a gas station that is always easy to find. This is only one month of electric vehicle sales and not a trend that has been going on for a while, but with the increased production of oil from OPEC and a large potential supply of oil in the future, gas prices should decline which takes away the incentive of paying more for an electric vehicle.

 

High risk, private market investments are showing up in more 401(k) plans

Another big 401K provider called Empower who oversees $1.8 trillion in 401(k) assets for about 19 million people has decided it will start allowing private credit, equity and real estate in some of the accounts they administer later this year. I think this is a terrible idea for investors. I have seen the back end of these private deals and many times investors have made no money from them and can only get out a little bit of their money at a time, while they are suffering from low returns and high fees. No surprise Wall Street loves these private market investments because of high fees, which range anywhere from 1% to 2% of the portfolio balance on an annual basis. One way they are trying to sneak in the private market funds is with a 10% allocation in the popular target date funds. This is pretty sneaky because you may be thinking you’re getting a pretty conservative stock and bond fund that becomes more conservative as you get older, but with a 10% allocation in these private assets I believe it will increase the funds risk and lower the returns going forward. As always, the bankers on Wall Street only care about generating more fees, and don’t care if investors lose money as long as they bring in their billions of dollars in profits. If you see these in your 401(k) options, cross them off the list and stick to the traditional long-term investments that have worked for so many years now.

 

Financial Planning: Who Benefits from the new SALT proposal?

The current SALT deduction allows taxpayers who itemize to deduct up to $10,000 of certain state and local taxes, most importantly their state income taxes and property taxes, from their federal taxable income. The new proposal in the House bill would raise this cap to $40,000 for households earning under $500,000, with a phaseout that fully eliminates the expanded deduction at $600,000. Married and single tax filers alike with incomes over $600,000 would be subject to the $10,000 SALT limit. This change is intended to benefit middle- and upper-middle-income taxpayers in high-tax states, while limiting the benefit for higher earners. The proposal also includes annual 1% inflation adjustments beginning in 2026. If the bill is signed into law in its current form, the larger deduction would apply beginning in tax year 2025. If passed, tax payers who make less than $600k in high tax states who own a home with a mortgage will see the biggest tax benefit and they may want to adjust their tax withholdings or estimated tax payments to account for it. However, the bill has not passed the Senate, and the final terms are likely to change.

 

Companies Discussed: CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA), First Solar, Inc. (FSLR), Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI), & UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)