November 18, 2023 | PPI, CPI Report, ETF Investors, PEG Ratio and Tax Loss Harvesting

PPI
More great news on the inflation front as the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.5% in the month of October, which was well below expectations for a 0.1% increase. This also marked the largest monthly decline since April 2020. Compared to last year, the index showed an increase of just 1.3% which was a nice decline from September’s reading of 2.2%. Even looking at the core PPI, which excludes food and energy there was a positive news. It was flat compared to September which was below the expectation for a 0.3%. The reduced inflation problems for producers should continue to benefit consumer prices in the months ahead.

CPI Report
There were some major positives in the CPI report which sent interest rates tumbling. In fact, the 10-year treasury fell to below 4.5%. What was so positive about the CPI? The headline number showed just a 3.2% increase in inflation compared to last year and the core CPI showed a gain of just 4.0% which was below the expectation for a 4.1% increase. This was also the lowest reading for core CPI since September 2021 and it is well below the peak of 6.6% that was hit last September. Areas where inflation still remains hot include admission to sporting events (+25.1%), motor vehicle repair (+15.1%), and motor vehicle insurance (+19.2%). Another area that continues to push inflation higher is shelter which increased 6.7% compared to last year. I continue to believe this index does a poor job reflecting the current state of shelter costs, yet it accounted for more than 70% of the increase in core CPI. As the shelter index normalizes, I believe we can quickly see a push towards the Fed’s target of 2%. While I don’t believe we will get there next year, I do believe we will see core inflation fall below 3%. For this reason, I do believe the Fed’s hiking cycle has ended. I believe they will continue to talk tough and push the higher for longer narrative, but with cooling inflation next year I would not be surprised to see rate cuts in the back part of the year. This should bode well for the right stocks in the market.

ETF Investors
I was shocked to see that based on an annual study from Schwab Asset Management, millennial ETF investors have 45% of their portfolios in fixed income which is substantially higher than 37% for Generation X. Also, 51% of millennials plan to invest in bond ETFs next year, compared to just 40% of baby boomers. I believe the craziness of Covid investing and the meme stock craze has dented millennials view of stocks. Many want the quick hit when it comes to investing and they have failed to realize how long-term investing actually works. The unfortunate part is many of these millennials are hurting their long-term investment returns by shifting so much into fixed income and when they realize the benefits of long-term investing 5-10 years from now, they will have missed out on the massive benefit of compounding during that time period.

PEG Ratio
Every Monday we go over the main fundamentals of all the equities we hold in our portfolio. I’m talking about such things as the valuations for the earnings, sales and cash flow. We also look at the growth rate on the earnings and sales along with the debt and the liquidity of all the equities that we own. There are many other factors we look at and the entire process takes between three to four hours every Monday. We have done this every Monday for well over the past 20 years religiously. The reason I bring this up is I cannot remember the last time I saw such strong price/earnings ratios and attractive PEG ratios for companies in our portfolio. The PEG ratio shows an investor what they’re paying for the future growth of a company. PEG Stands for price/earnings divided by growth. No one knows exactly when the turnaround will happen, but based on our 40 years of experience in the finance world, we have been through this many times and we are confident companies/stocks will soon be based on valuations including the PEG ratio. Those investors that remain patient with the right companies as always will be rewarded. Investors who panic and fall in love with a CD at 5% will have regrets down the road.

Financial Planning: Tax Loss Harvesting
Tax loss harvesting is when you sell an investment for less than you purchased it for to create a realized loss that can be used to offset other capital gains. Investors like to engage in tax loss harvesting at the end of the year to reduce their tax liabilities. Before selling a position at a loss, it is import to understand the full tax benefit and the opportunity cost so you can decide if it is worth it. For example, let’s assume you wanted to take a loss on a $50,000 investment after the stock declined 15% to $42,500, resulting in a $7,500 loss to be used to offset some long-term capital gains. The average investor is in the 15% federal capital gain tax bracket and the 9.3% state tax bracket, meaning the $7,500 loss results in a tax reduction of $1,822.50. This sounds nice, but your $42,500 position would only need to grow by 4.29% to recoup that $1,822.50 tax savings, which is absolutely possible assuming the investment was purchased for the right reasons and still has strong fundamentals. Volatility in the market is normal, so it is important to avoid missing out on big gains to save a little in taxes. This doesn’t mean tax loss harvesting is always a bad thing, in fact, there can be several reasons where it makes a lot of sense. If an investor can offset short-term capital gains or ordinary income with tax loss selling, the extra tax savings due to the higher tax rate may justify realizing a loss. Also, if an investor’s AGI is close to triggering extra Income Related Monthly Adjustment Amounts for Medicare premiums or additional Net Investment Income Taxes, then a reduced income level from tax loss harvesting could be valuable. Or perhaps the investment doesn’t have a lot of potential so it would be best to sell and purchase something else while receiving some tax saving consolation. There are instances where tax loss selling is helpful, but realizing losses simply because you have some gains is not always the best decision.