November 9th, 2024 | Dow Jones (DOW), Election, Retirement, Taxable Social Security, First Solar, Inc. (FSLR), Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) & Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW)

Major changes to the Dow Jones you should know about!

The Dow Jones has changed again as Nvidia (NVDA) replaced Intel (INTC) and Sherwin-Williams (SHW) replaced Dow Inc. (DOW). The most recent change in the Dow Jones came on February 26th when Amazon (AMZN) replaced Walgreens (WBA). With the addition of Nvidia, much of the Mag Seven will now be present in the Dow Jones. As I mentioned Amazon was recently added, but Apple and Microsoft have been components for many years. It seems the Dow has really lost relevance as it has trailed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in popularity and performance. I worry adding NVDA at this point in time could be buying high and at times the committee has had poorly timed decisions. Back in August 2020 the committee ended up doing a three-company swap as they eliminated Exxon, Pfizer, and Raytheon and added Amgen, Honeywell, and Salesforce. The interesting swap was Exxon (XOM) for Salesforce (CRM) considering XOM is up close to 200% not including dividends during that time period while CRM is up just around 10% during the same timeframe. Another poor decision came back in June 2018 when the committee swapped General Electric (GE) for Walgreens (WBA). Since the switch GE is up over 180% and I don’t believe that return even includes the benefit of the spinoffs GE Vernova and GE Healthcare, which would make the return even more attractive. During the same timeframe, Walgreens has had a rough time and the stock has actually fallen over 80%. While some maybe excited about the move, I wouldn’t be surprised if Intel actually outperformed Nvidia over the next 5 years. 

 

The election is over, what investors should do now!

My belief is that your plan should not have a drastic change after the Trump win, but there may be small changes to keep an eye on. The first thing I would tell people is to be careful chasing proposed winners or selling potential losers this early in the game. Ultimately, we don’t know exactly what policy changes he will be able to implement and we don’t even know at this point who will fill his cabinet. I was bullish on financials before the Trump win, but now that he will be entering office the group will likely benefit from a more relaxed regulatory environment compared to the current administration. Regional banks in particular look like they could be big beneficiaries, but be careful as many already had a big first day move after the election results. I was somewhat surprised to see big tech as a big winner as well, but it seems in today’s world everything is good for big tech. If you have been following us, you know we are skeptical of many of these big tech companies due to excessive valuations and frankly I just don’t see how a Trump presidency would be overly positive for the group. Especially considering both Trump and VP elect JD Vance have been critical of the group in the past. I would not be surprised to see continued regulatory pressure for some of these companies even after the change in the White House. Health care is also an interesting sector with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. being a large part of the Trump campaign considering his criticisms of vaccines and the food system. While this is something to keep your eye on, I don’t believe the group is completely doomed and in fact you could find some opportunities if stock prices continue to be pressured. Green energy is also in the cross hairs and many of these companies saw large declines after the results. While this may be an area of concern if the Inflation Reduction Act is repealed, I believe investors may be able to find some good opportunities if these businesses can maintain profits especially considering our need for more energy. At this point in time, I would wait for more clarity on that space as changes to tax credits could totally disrupt the current earnings picture for many of these businesses. Overall, you may be excited or disappointed with the results, but ultimately the strategy of investing in good quality companies at fair prices over the long term should not change!

 

Do you think you will be able to retire when the time comes?

At Wilsey Asset Management we continue to work very hard to encourage people to invest for retirement and also to invest wisely so they can retire at a reasonable age. What is a reasonable age? Most would say 65 but in recent surveys the average age is 62, that's a surprise to me. What is also a surprise is that in 2002 the average age of retirement was 59, and in 1991 it was 57. Could it be because people are living longer and are getting bored in retirement for 20 years or longer? I’m not sure of the reason why but it seems like we have to work a little bit harder based on a survey from New York Life that says 22% of retirees think they may never be able to retire. I have often said getting old is not that great but getting old and not having a good investment portfolio, well that can be devastating. Be sure you are taking advantage of workplace retirement plans, IRAs, or even investing in a tax advantaged brokerage account.

 

Is Your Social Security Taxable?

Social Security benefits are taxable, but they are not treated like any other source of income. Currently there are only 9 states that tax Social Security: Colorado, Connecticut, Minnesota, Montana, New Mexico, Rhode Island, Utah, Vermont, and West Virginia. The remaining states do not tax it so the majority of Americans do not need to report it on their state returns. Since this income does not take up any room in state tax brackets, it is much easier to keep taxable income lower in retirement at the state level. On the federal level, between 0% and 85% of Social Security benefits is reportable as income, so at least 15% is tax free. The lower someone’s income is in retirement, the greater chance that a larger portion of their Social Security will be tax free. The ratio of taxable to non-taxable benefits is based on “combined” income which is a Social Security Administration term that includes ½ of Social Security benefits plus all remaining income sources. If a married couple’s combined income is less than $32,000, none of their benefits are taxable. If combined income is between $32,000 and $44,000, up to 50% of benefits are taxable, and if combined income is greater than $44,000 then up to 85% of benefits are taxable. If these parameters seem low, that is because they were created in 1983 and have not been indexed for inflation. In the 80’s, $32,000 and $44,000 was a relatively high level of retirement income so most people did not have to pay taxes on it. Over the last 4 decades as income levels have naturally risen due to inflation, more and more recipients are forced to pay taxes on their benefits. It is unfortunate that Social Security is taxable at all because it used to be tax free prior to 1983. Now we are taxed in retirement when we receive it, and we are taxed on the income we earn that is used to pay into Social Security while we are working resulting in double taxation. It is possible to structure retirement income in a way that reduces the taxation on Social Security, but it is getting increasingly harder to do so.

 

Companies Discussed: First Solar, Inc. (FSLR), Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) & Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW)