Episodes
Sunday Apr 10, 2022
Sunday Apr 10, 2022
Walt Disney
I held Walt Disney in the portfolio many years ago and I’ve been waiting for a correction to come to put this wonderful business back in my portfolio. I always liked it because it was a family type business. Now the company seems to be getting away from the family orientation.
Index Investors
It was not a good start for index investors in the first quarter of 2022. The S&P 500 fell 4.9%, the Dow Jones was down 4.6% and the tech heavy NASDAQ was down 9.1% in the quarter.
Nasdaq and Treasury Markets
We saw a quick reversal in the markets today and in particular the Nasdaq and treasury markets. I believe these two markets will be hit the hardest by Fed actions and rising rates. The reversal came after hawkish comments from Lael Brainard who is generally considered a dovish member.
Bitcoin Update
Here is a bitcoin update. Over the last 12 months investors in bitcoin are down over 22%. The global bitcoin industry is also continuing to really suck power for production of the cryptocurrency. Consumption by the global bitcoin industry is 135 Terawatt hours which is more than the entire country of Norway consumed at 124 Terawatt hours. One terawatt equals 1,000,000,000,000 Watts. Or put another way it is the equivalent of 10,000,000,000 100-Watt bulbs.
Harrison Johnson, CFP®– “Generalized” Financial Advice
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Monday Apr 04, 2022
Monday Apr 04, 2022
March 2022 Jobs Report
To no surprise the job recoupment continued in the month of March as non-farm payrolls grew by 431,000. This did miss the estimate of 490,000, but the previous two months saw revisions total a gain of 95,000 which more than offset the miss.
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) continues to post elevated numbers. In the month of February there were 11.27 million job openings which compares to the total number of people counted as unemployed at 6.27 million. This now means that there is a record 5 million more openings than people that are unemployed!
Previous 401(k) Accounts
With the level of quits we have seen in the JOLTs report many are deeming this era of time as the Great Resignation or the Great Reshuffle as employees are changing companies at an elevated rate. One item to be cognizant of if you have changed jobs is your 401k at that old employer. As of last year, it is estimated Americans had about $1.35 trillion in old employer 401(k) plans.
Yield Curve Inversion
People are now worried about the yield curve inversion. This is when shorter term bonds offer higher yields compared to longer term bonds. While this has been a reliable indicator of recession in the past, it by no means is something to panic over.
Harrison Johnson, CFP®: Financing with Higher Interest Rates
Tuesday Mar 29, 2022
Tuesday Mar 29, 2022
- Apple’s New Phone: SE
I recently read about all the hype on Apple products from the recent product event and special notice was taken to the big push on their new phone the SE which starts at $429 versus $699 for the cheapest iPhone 13. - Would you fly in an airplane that uses only electricity?
The electric vehicle market has taken off, but there’s always the question would you fly in an airplane that uses only electricity? Most of the time the answer is no but there is another alternative for clean energy. General Electric developed the use of hydrogen to run gas turbines to generate power which generates zero carbon emissions. They are now adopting hydrogen to be used with jet engines - Energy Sources
Electric vehicles seem to receive all the hype, but I believe it would be best to have multiple sources for energy. If we become too dependent on the electric grid, outages or supply disruptions could cause major price spikes. - 10-Year Treasury and the Housing Market
The 10-year treasury crossed the 2.5% mark today. Last year I thought we would hit that level by the end of 2021, it came about three months later than I expected. This could cool the housing market as mortgage rates continue to rise pushing more and more people out of the housing market as the monthly payment becomes too expensive. - Harrison Johnson, CFP®: Financing with Higher Interest Rates
Tuesday Mar 22, 2022
Tuesday Mar 22, 2022
- Increases in the Economy: Retail sales came out today with a headline miss as they grew 0.3% compared to January below the estimate of 0.4%. A major positive in the report was January was revised upwards and compared to December, retail sales grew 4.9%. The initial January report showed a gain of just 3.8%.
- Oil Companies
If you hold in your portfolio oil companies like BP, Shell, or Exxon you may want to be prepared for a write down of assets against earnings in the next quarter or two if the Ukraine Russia war does not change course soon. - Inflation & Consumers
Many comparisons are being made to the 1970s with the current situation of inflation and rising gas prices. One big difference today versus then is that in the 70s food and energy costs consumed 20% of consumers budgets. - LA Ports
Things are improving at the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles in regard to container ships. The number waiting for berths at the port has now dropped to 50 roughly half of the 100 at the peak back in January. This could be a positive for inflation as more goods hit the markets. - Harrison Johnson, CFP®: Early Retirement
Monday Mar 14, 2022
SPACs, Oil Price Spikes, Tax on Big Oil Companies, and the JOLTS Report
Monday Mar 14, 2022
Monday Mar 14, 2022
SPACs: You may not remember about 18 to 24 months ago when the big rage was SPACs. These are special purpose acquisition companies, and many were formed back in 2020. We talked about not investing in these blind pools for fear of being hurt and losing money.
Oil Price Spikes: Russia has made a bold call that if the West proceeds with a ban on energy exports, oil prices would skyrocket to $300/barrel if not more. This would be a devastating situation for our economy, but I do not see this as likely. Currently the major oil companies and the government are playing a blame game with one another.
Tax on Big Oil Companies: I was disappointed to see congress members solution to higher oil prices is to tax big oil companies at extremely high rates. The proposal which comes from Elizabeth Warren and Sheldon Whitehouse would require oil companies that produce or import at least 300,000 barrels of oil per day to pay a per-barrel tax equal to 50% of the difference between the current price of a barrel and the average price from the years 2015 to 2019.
JOLTS: Our favorite Job Openings report (JOLTS) came out today and the openings continue to remain strong with 11.26 million in the month of January. This level is currently 4.75 million more than those that are counted as unemployed.
Tuesday Mar 08, 2022
Stocks, February Jobs Report, Harrison Johnson, CFP®: Beneficiary Designations
Tuesday Mar 08, 2022
Tuesday Mar 08, 2022
- The Right Stocks Will Do Well Over The Long Term
- US Electric Grid: The United States electric grid is becoming older by the day. In 2020 there were over 180 power disruptions
- February Jobs Report: The Russia/Ukraine news continued to dominate the markets and what was for the most part a strong jobs report flew under the radar. Nonfarm payrolls saw an increase of 678,000 in February which easily topped the estimate of 440,000 as jobs continued to be recouped from Covid.
- Harrison Johnson CFP® – Beneficiary Designations
Sunday Feb 27, 2022
SEC, Tax Returns, Stop Loss Orders, The Future of Money, and What is a CFP?
Sunday Feb 27, 2022
Sunday Feb 27, 2022
- The SEC: Recently the Securities and Exchange Commission also known as the SEC passed a proposal that would force hedge funds and private equity funds to provide basic disclosures to their investors and guard against conflicts.
- Tax Returns: Did you have problems reaching the IRS last year? You wouldn't have been alone as the IRS had just 16,000 workers charged with fielding 240 million calls that’s about 15,000 each.
- Stop Loss Orders: Reasons to not use stop loss orders
- The Future of Money: There is an excellent book about digital currencies titled the future of money: how the digital revolution is transforming currencies and finance.
- What is a CFP?
Saturday Feb 19, 2022
Saturday Feb 19, 2022
- Inflation:
We reported last week that inflation year over year was up 7.5%. Companies are doing their best to hide these increases in many ways such as reducing the portion size at restaurants or reducing the number of ounces of a product you buy in the store. Another trick they are using is not increasing the price but adding overpriced accessories that you may buy on a car or another similar product.
- Household Debt:
Total household debt increased by $1.02 trillion last year due to higher prices on homes and cars.
- Oil:
We all know that prices at the pump are increasing as demand for oil is high and supplies are low. One thing you may not know is that spending on exploration and production in the US has dropped dramatically from before the pandemic when it was close to $190 billion to the current level around $75 billion.
- Federal Gas Tax Holiday:
The idea of a federal gas tax holiday has been floating around as a potential solution to curb energy inflation.
- Harrison Johnson, CFP® | Financial Planner: 401k Rollover
Saturday Feb 12, 2022
Saturday Feb 12, 2022
Highlights:
- On Friday, February 4 China and Russia announced a new oil and gas deal valued at roughly $118 billion. It should also be known that last year the trade between the two countries hit a record $147 billion.
- The big game is now just a couple of days away!!! As always we like to take a look at some numbers before enjoying the game.
- The trade deficit has now reached $859 billion on a yearly basis, that’s an increase of 27% over the previous year.
- The numbers are in on inflation and it’s no surprise that inflation rose by 7.5% over the past year. It was the largest annual increase since February 1982. What affects will this have besides the obvious?
- Harrison Johnson, CFP® : The Time Value of Money
Learn more about our investing strategies at: smartinvesting2000.com
Saturday Feb 05, 2022
Saturday Feb 05, 2022
- Jobs Report
The jobs report blew past the estimate of 150,000 today as nonfarm payrolls grew 467,000 in January. Also, November and December saw a huge revision upward as it totaled 709,000. While I was surprised by the magnitude of the beat, I wasn't surprised to see a good report. We can't forget that employers are still desperate for workers as the job openings in December totaled nearly 11 million which was 4.6 million above the total unemployment level. It's also important to remember that we are continuing to regain jobs that were lost due to the Covid lockdowns. Currently, total employment is still about 1.7 million below where it was in February 2020.
Facebook/Meta lost over $200 billion of market cap this morning because earnings did not please growth investors.
- Apple
Last week Apple reported record numbers and investors cheered the results and pushed the stock up a little more. That enthusiasm may temper going forward as the details of the numbers have come out showing that greater China revenue increased 21% to a record $25.8 billion during the quarter and accounts for approximately 21% of the $124 billion in sales.
- CFP® Harrison Johnson: Inheriting Annuities
Saturday Jan 29, 2022
Saturday Jan 29, 2022
Mentioned Topics:
- GDP Report
The GDP report came in very strong this morning as Q4 saw an annualized growth rate of 6.9% which blew past the estimate of 5.5%. While this is a positive, there was a large gain of 32% from private domestic investment which is a gauge for business spending and inventory build.
- Public Pension Funds
In an effort to increase their performance US public pension funds have been putting more dollars into higher risk private equity.
- Oil Companies
People are concerned about investing in oil companies because they believe there is a very short timeframe before the EV market will reduce oil consumption.
- CFP® Harrison Johnson: Inheriting Annuities
Saturday Jan 22, 2022
Peloton (PTON), Netflix (NFLX), Interest Rates
Saturday Jan 22, 2022
Saturday Jan 22, 2022
- The problems keep on coming for Peloton (PTON) as the stock traded as low as $23.25 today. That's a decline of more than 20% just for the day and compares to the company's all time high of close to $170 back in January of last year and is also lower than the IPO price of $29. In terms of market cap
- Has competition got the best of Netflix? In trading Friday morning, the stock was down over 20% trading under $400 well off the $700 high.
- I know that some people were disappointed that the Build Back Better plan did not go through. I was not one of them because I feel with our debt at $29 trillion that is enough. One thing people don’t think about is if we added another couple trillion dollars to the debt as interest rates go up the government has to pay more in interest.
Monday Jan 17, 2022
Big Tech Names, Bitcoin, Federal Reserve, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Monday Jan 17, 2022
Monday Jan 17, 2022
- We have talked before about how the big tech names like Apple and Microsoft continue to carry the NASDAQ. Proof of that was showing last week when 38% of the NASDAQ stocks had fallen 50% or more from their 52-week highs.
- You may feel safe with Bitcoin because it’s estimated that 114 million people hold Bitcoin. There are 7.9 billion people in the world by the way. The 114 million does include people who have lost their passwords and cannot access their Bitcoin. But more importantly 0.01% of Bitcoin holders control 27% of the 19 million Bitcoin in circulation. Why is that important?
- We have all heard and know that the Federal Reserve plans on hiking interest rates this year at least three times. What you may not have heard of that does not sound as exciting is the reduction of the Feds balance sheet.
- The inflation reports continue to remain at levels not seen in years as the CPI came in at 7% year over year which was the highest level since 1982.
Wednesday Jan 12, 2022
Wednesday Jan 12, 2022
- Has Cathie Wood’s fame come to an end? After riding Tesla and other hot tech stocks in 2020, Wood predicted a strong 20% return in 2021 for her flagship fund ARKK. That was not the case as the fund lost over 23% in 2021 and is down nearly 9% to start 2022.
- Labor Force Participation
- Boston Beer Company
- The 10-year note hit 1.8% Friday morning
Stocks Discussed:
- International Business Machines Corporation (IBM)
- Starbucks (SBUX)
- Ford Motor Company (F)
- Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (LYV)
Monday Dec 20, 2021
Monday Dec 13, 2021
Small Business Lawsuits, Gifting Stocks
Monday Dec 13, 2021
Monday Dec 13, 2021
- Small business lawsuits
- PPL Stock
- Harrison Johnson, CFP speaks about gifting stocks this holiday season
Tuesday Dec 07, 2021
Jobs Report and CFP® Harrison Johnson: Power of Tax Deferred Growth
Tuesday Dec 07, 2021
Tuesday Dec 07, 2021
- The jobs report looked like a big disappointment this morning with payrolls increasing just 210,000, far below the estimate of 573,000. There were however some bright spots in areas that could help ease the inflation concerns.
- Harrison Johnson, CFP®: Power of Tax Deferred Growth
Saturday Nov 27, 2021
Options, Oil Reserves, Peloton, Inflation & Price of Oil
Saturday Nov 27, 2021
Saturday Nov 27, 2021
On today's episode:
- Uh oh! Shocking news about the close for this year. What happened? Is it time to panic?
- What are less experienced investors using their options on? Why is this a bad idea?
- President Biden is going to release 50 million barrels from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Is this going to effect gasoline or oil pricing?
- Peloton (PTON) crashed on their stocks. We have the latest information on that.
- Harrison Johnson calls in to talk about income problem vs. tax problem.
- Good news on the inflation front. What is it?
- We take your calls and analyze the stocks that you want to talk about.
Sunday Nov 21, 2021
CFP® Harrison Johnson: Umbrella Insurance
Sunday Nov 21, 2021
Sunday Nov 21, 2021
On today's episode:
- The Staples Center is getting a name change. What do we think about it?
- Big conglomerates are breaking up their companies. What does this mean for our economy?
- Harrison Johnson calls in to discuss about umbrella insurance. What is that and how can it effect you?
- Elon Musk is in the financial news again (no one is surprised though). What did he say that can make many investors worry right now?
- We talk about the stocks that you call in or comment on our Facebook page and want us to analyze.
Sunday Nov 14, 2021
Rivian (RIVN)
Sunday Nov 14, 2021
Sunday Nov 14, 2021
Get ready for a very informative episode today!
- Rivian (RIVN) is in the financial news. Good news? Bad news? Find out!
- People are quitting jobs at a record for this last month. How will this effect our economy?
- We analyze the stocks that you call in and want to talk about.